Core ideas:
The company publishes three quarterly reports for 2023. The operating income of 23Q1-3 is 6.241 billion yuan, + 4.77% compared with the same period last year, the net profit is 82 million yuan,-69.44%, 7.62 million yuan,-95.73%, + 4.86%, 21 million yuan,-9.96%, 134 million yuan, respectively.
The increase in the proportion of distribution and non-housing led to income growth and share increase. From January to September, the new construction area of real estate continues to decline in double digits compared with the same period last year, while the company can still grow and increase its market share in the face of weakening industry demand, which we believe is mainly due to the pull of distribution channels. and the growth rate of civil construction at C-end will be faster, in addition, the proportion of non-housing is expected to continue to increase.
The gross profit margin is more flexible than the same period last year, and the Q3 ratio is also improving after cost optimization. 23Q1/Q2/Q3 gross profit margins are 21.59%, 20.76%, 21.35%, respectively, compared with the same period last year-4.15/+0.14/+2.37pct. Last year, asphalt continued to rise sharply from Q1 to Q3, and remained stable this year. Coupled with the decline in non-asphalt costs, the year-on-year elasticity of gross profit margin is expanding under the influence of the base. The company Q3 started to increase the cost-side optimization, such as the adjustment of procurement mode, the adjustment of personnel and assessment methods, and the promotion of high gross profit products, to ensure the increase of gross profit margin compared with the previous month. We expect that the effect of cost reduction in the fourth quarter will be greater.
The rate of sales expenses increases, and the credit impairment affects the profit more. 23Q1-3 expense rate 15.58%, year-on-year + 0.51pctMagneQ3 fee rate 16.87%, year-on-year-0.61pct, in which sales expense rate is year-on-year + 1.99pct, the increase is mainly due to increased development efforts for distribution channels; 23Q1-3 credit impairment loss of 290 million yuan, single Q3 provision of 130 million yuan, mainly due to the increase in account age; single Q3 net interest rate of 1.03%, year-on-year-0.27pct, month-on-month + 0.93pct.
Profit forecast and investment advice. We estimate that the 23-24 year return net profit of the company is 1.81 yuan and 565 million yuan respectively, corresponding to the previous PE 44.38,14.20 times, maintaining the judgment of 20 times the reasonable valuation of the company in 24 years, corresponding to the reasonable value of 9.60 yuan per share, and maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint. The risk of real estate demand falling short of expectations, the risk of fluctuations in raw material prices, and the risk that new channels are not as expected.