Q3 revenue + 14.44% quarter-on-month ratio + 14.44% quarter-on-month ratio of 1.62%, profit month-on-month ratio + 700.77% month-on-month ratio of + 70.77% month-on-month ratio of + 40.60%
The company released three quarterly reports: in 2023, Q1-Q3 realized revenue of 42.942 billion yuan (yoy+20.99%), net profit of 789 million yuan (yoy+227.49%), and non-net profit of 452 million yuan. Among them, Q3 realized revenue of 14.097 billion yuan (yoy+14.44%,qoq+1.62%) and net profit of 183 million yuan (yoy+700.77%,qoq-40.60%). Taking into account the increase in the company's sales expenses and slight changes in the product structure, we reduce the company's 23-25 net profit to $2.38 billion (the previous value is $2.47 billion). Comparable company's 24-year Wind unanimously expected the average PE to be 14 times, considering that the company firmly ranks first in domestic commercial vehicles, and is expected to release performance flexibility with the industry upward in 24-25 years, we give the company 16 times PE in 24 years, with a target price of 3.84 yuan (the previous value is 4.80 yuan) to maintain the buy rating.
Q3 profits declined month-on-month, mainly due to higher sales expenses.
Q3 net profit dropped by 130 million yuan month on month, net profit rate for 23 years Q1-Q3 was 1.84% Q3 was 1.3% (yoy+1.1pct,qoq-0.9pct). We think that the company's Q3 commercial vehicle sales maintained a steady growth trend, with a month-on-month growth of + 2.3% (outperforming 1% of the industry), supporting steady income growth, and the release of economies of scale supported the company's gross profit margin to maintain a month-on-month improvement over the past 23 years. The 23-year gross profit margin of the company is 12.01% Q1-Q3 and 12.6% Q3 (yoy+2.5pct,qoq+0.2pct). From the expense point of view, the company's Q3 period rate is 11.34% (yoy+1.5pct,qoq+2.2pct), sales rate is 4.38% (yoy+0.7pct,qoq+1.6pct), Q3 sales expenses are + 160 million yuan, or the impact of new energy vehicle market promotion and cross-quarterly settlement of overseas fees has a greater impact on Q3 earnings decline.
In addition, the company's R & D expenses continue to increase, and the investment loss of Q3 is 110 million yuan (of which the joint venture company Q3 lost 73 million yuan, reducing the loss compared with the previous month), which also has an impact on the profit end.
The company's Q3 is growing steadily, continuing to outperform the industry and being the first to enjoy the recovery dividend. According to Chinese insurance data, domestic sales of commercial vehicles reached 2.131 million in January-September 23, compared with the same period last year. + 6% of the same month sales of 247000 units, + 34% year-on-year. Q3 achieved sales of 706000 units, a month-on-month ratio of + 1%, with a stable performance. We believe that 23 years is the key year for the commercial vehicle market to digest the previous policy overdraft demand and rebound after the release of the epidemic. The annual sales volume is expected to be 380-4 million vehicles, and there is no need to worry about the positive growth tone. According to the company's announcement, the sales of Foton commercial vehicles reached 504000 from January to September in 23 years, compared with the same month last year, 65000 units were sold in September compared with the same month last year, and 21% compared with the same month last year. Q3 achieved sales of 163000 units, with a month-on-month ratio of + 2.3%, outperforming the industry. As of September, Foton's share of commercial vehicles reached 14.4%, higher than the second place 2pct.
The company maintains a leading position in the industry, outsells the industry, and is expected to fully enjoy the upward dividend of the industry.
Focus on the main business results are obvious, optimistic about the company's profit elasticity under the acceleration of product launch and promotion + industry recovery, we think the company has sufficient momentum for growth: on the one hand, the traditional strengths of light and heavy trucks continue to rise with the market recovery, at the same time, the sales of middle and high-end Fukuda Daimler heavy trucks and engines are up, or improve profitability (23Q1-Q3 Foton Daimler sales of 57000 units, year-on-year + 32% Engine sales of 207000, year-on-year + 24%). On the one hand, there has been a major breakthrough in new energy vehicles, with 23Q1-Q3 sales of 26000 units, + 90% of the same period last year.
Risk hint: the sales of commercial vehicles are lower than expected; the price of materials is higher than expected; the price is lower than expected.