Events:
According to the report released by Hagrid Communications for the third quarter of 2023, the operating income in the first three quarters was 4.035 billion yuan, up 8.79% from the same period last year; the net profit from home was 358 million yuan, down 9.30% from the same period last year; the net profit from non-return was 281 million yuan, down 7.59% from the same period last year; and the gross profit margin was 33.75%, down 1.66pct from the same period last year. In a single quarter, the operating income in the third quarter was 1.158 billion yuan, down 5.43% from the same period last year; the net profit from home was 47 million yuan, down 54.53% from the same period last year; and the net profit from non-return was 29 million yuan, down 58.53% from the same period last year.
The completion of the fixed increase issue will help to enhance the competitiveness of the main industry.
On October 19, the company successfully issued A shares to specific targets in 2023, raising 1.855 billion yuan. In addition to the subscription of controlling shareholder Guangzhou Radio Group and its subsidiary Pingyun Industrial Investment, nine other investors, including China Mobile Capital, the Big Dipper Equity Investment Fund, Guohua Satellite Application Industry Fund, Poly Defense Equity Investment, Guangzhou Industrial Investment and CITIC Construction Investment, have become the targets of the company's stock offering through competitive bidding. The funds raised will be invested in the "Beidou + 5G" integration R & D industrialization project, unmanned information industry base project, Tianshu R & D center construction and satellite Internet R & D project, which will help the company to further focus on its main business, improve quality and efficiency, optimize product structure and strengthen technological advantages.
Continue to increase investment in new strategic directions
Under the background of the acceleration of national defense information and digital economy construction, the company seizes the opportunities of Beidou 3 large-scale application, unmanned system militarization application, satellite navigation integration and other industry opportunities, gradually increase investment in unmanned systems, Beidou navigation, satellite Internet and other strategic directions, and raise funds for related R & D and production capacity construction, which is expected to open up new profit growth points, open up development space, and support long-term development.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
Taking into account the slowdown in the pace of downstream demand release and order delivery, we estimate that the company's operating income from 2023 to 2025 will be 63.36 and 71.75 billion respectively (the original value is 65.38) and the corresponding growth rate will be 12.83% 13.25% 13.15% respectively. The net profit of home ownership is 7.28, 915, 000 and 1.132 million respectively. The corresponding growth rate is 8.96%, 25.66%, 23.78, and 0.49 yuan per share, respectively, and the 3-year CAGR is 19.23%. Reference to comparable companies, give the company 2024 PE valuation of 35 times, the target price of 13.89 yuan, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: systemic risks, intensified competition in the satellite navigation market, national defense information construction is not as expected, business expansion is not as expected, and the new production capacity of fund-raising projects is not as expected.