Event: the company released its three-quarter report in 2023, with operating income of 2.609 billion yuan, year-on-year-30.76%, and net profit of 238 million yuan,-48.45%. Of this total, Q3 achieved revenue of 873 million yuan, compared with-27.23% and 1.82%, respectively, with a net profit of 108 million yuan and 1.82% respectively. Q3 is mainly due to capital occupation fee income of 84 million yuan, non-recurrent profit and loss totaling 68 million yuan, non-profit after deducting 44 million yuan, same / month ratio of-62.05% mai 57.69%.
The volume and price of the refrigerant plate of 23Q3 Company has dropped month-on-month, waiting for the downstream demand to pick up. 1) the sales volume of fluorine refrigerant in 23Q3 company is 34900 tons, with a ratio of-9.92% to 1.67%, with a unit price of 1.94 million yuan per ton, and a ratio of-18.34% to 8.06%. The profitability of 23Q3 third-generation refrigerants is under short-term pressure. according to Baichuan data, the average price of 23Q3 R32/R125/R134a is 1.41max 2.23max RMB / ton, with a month-on-month ratio of-3.42%, 10.29% and 5.34%, corresponding to a price difference of RMB 1550max 8079max 6497 yuan / ton, and a month-on-month ratio of-29.14% RMB11.96% Pue 5.65%. From the beginning of October to the 30th day, the average price of R32/R125/R134a is 1.67 yuan per ton, and the corresponding price difference is 2438 yuan per ton, which is better than that of Q3.
In the short term, due to the weak recovery downstream, the growth of refrigerants is slow, but we believe that the supply side is a long-term hard constraint, which is expected to support the industry profitability to continue to repair. 2) the company's sales volume of R141b fluorine foaming agent is 1706 tons, with a sales price of 20,000 yuan per ton, compared with-67.26% and 13.67%, compared with-67.26% and 13.67%, respectively.
R141b foaming agent belongs to the second generation refrigerant. although the quota is reduced, the supply and demand is weak under the trend of competitive product replacement. according to the R141b maintained at 21,000 yuan / ton after wind,22Q2, we judge that the price continues to be stable.
Based on the existing industrial chain, the company extends to the field of high value-added products such as fluoropolymers. According to the 23 semi-annual report, 5000t/aFEP and 5000t/aPVDF projects, 90,000 tons of AHF technical renovation projects; Fujian Dongying 6000t/a LiPF6 and 100t/a high purity PF5 projects; Shengmei Lithium Power Phase I 500t/a LiFSI and other projects are under way. By the end of 23Q3, the total amount of projects under construction in the company was 498 million yuan, which was 92% higher than that at the end of 22 years.
Investment suggestion: the profit improvement of the third-generation refrigerants lags slightly behind expectations. We downgrade the company's parent net profit forecast for 23-25 years to RMB 317 million, corresponding to PE 54.0 / 21.1 / 17.8x. We are optimistic that after entering the 24 quota year, the company will benefit from the high flexibility of price increases. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: refrigerant demand is lower than expected, industry policy changes, capacity release is not as expected.