Report guide
The company released its report for the third quarter of 2023, with revenue of 2.91 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 3.83% over the same period last year; net profit of 278 million yuan, down 8.65%; and non-return net profit of 236 million yuan, down 12.21% from the same period last year.
Of this total, Q3 achieved revenue of 969 million yuan in the single quarter, an increase of 13.87 percent over the same period last year, an increase of 4.33 percent over the same period last year, a net profit of 63 million yuan, an increase of 372.66 percent over the same period last year, a decrease of 20.17 percent, and a net profit of 45 million yuan, an increase of 500.52 percent over the same period last year and a decrease of 34.26 percent.
Main points of investment
Spandex profits continue to be under pressure, Q3 company profits have declined month-on-month, Q3 homing net profit dropped 20.17%, we think it is mainly a drag on spandex. According to Wande, the price difference of 23Q3 spandex 40D is 12619 yuan / ton, down 9.23% from the previous month. According to Baichuan Yingfu, as of October 23, the spandex industry has a production capacity of 1.33 million tons, an increase of 180000 tons compared with the beginning of 23, demand is weak, short-term supply increases more, it is expected that the profitability of the spandex industry will not be greatly improved. The company's Q3 gross profit margin is 20.78%, year-on-year + 5.56 PCT, month-on-month-4.39 PCT;Q3 net profit 7.67%, year-on-year + 6.24 PCT, month-on-month-2.05 PCT. In the first three quarters, the company's net operating cash flow was 253 million yuan, down 118 million yuan from the same period last year.
The new production capacity of aramid fiber is advancing steadily, and it is expected that by the end of the first three quarters, the company is under construction of 2.34 billion yuan, an increase of 470 million yuan over the same period last year, mainly for the company's aramid expansion project. The company's aramid production capacity will be 16000 tons and 16000 tons by the end of 23. The company's aramid lithium diaphragm has a production capacity of 30 million square meters, downstream customer verification is relatively smooth, has obtained small batch orders, is expected to contribute to the performance in 24 years. The company announced on July 28 that it intends to invest 1.3 billion yuan to build 20, 000 tons of intermediate aramid and its derivatives to meet the demand for aramid in the new energy industry. At present, the company is the leader of aramid and spandex in China, the new production capacity will further consolidate the company's market position, drive the company's performance center upward, and the lithium diaphragm increment project will advance steadily, which is expected to open up the company's growth space. we are optimistic about the company's growth potential.
Profit forecast and valuation
Spandex profit repair is lower than expected, reducing the company's 23-25 year net profit to 3.83 million, EPS is 0.44, 0.79 and 1.10 yuan per share, corresponding to PE is 35.06,19.75,14.15 respectively, aramid continued volume, diaphragm project steadily progress, we are optimistic about the company's long-term growth. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
Aramid production capacity release is not as expected, downstream customer development is not as expected, raw material price fluctuation risk.