Event: the company publishes the forecast of the third quarterly report in 2023, and the results are under short-term pressure. In 2023, the company's Q3 operating income was 88.9609 million yuan, year-on-year-20.47%, month-on-month-11.51%; return-to-mother net profit 21.1575 million yuan, year-on-year-8.56%, month-on-month-1.75%; deduction of non-return net profit 20.4311 million yuan, + 4.69% year-on-year. The company's 2023 Q1-Q3 operating income of 269 million yuan, year-on-year-21.88%; return to the mother of 59.0792 million yuan, year-on-year-25.41%; deducted non-return net profit of 53.9867 million yuan, year-on-year-20.41%. The company's third-quarter results are under short-term pressure.
The company's capacity planning has a bright future, and the long-term increase of 10 times production is expected to contribute to profits. The company's overall capacity planning: (1) existing production capacity: carbonyl iron powder production capacity of about 5000 tons / year, atomized alloy powder production capacity of about 1000 tons / year; (2) investment project capacity: carbonyl iron powder project can be increased by 6000 tons / year (planned to be released in three years); atomized alloy powder project can be increased by 4000 tons / year; (3) Ningxia 100000 ton project capacity: the plan is divided into three phases, the plan is divided into: 3000 tons, 27000 tons, 70000 tons.
In the fourth quarter, the annual output of 6000 tons of carbonyl iron powder and other products (phase I) and the expansion project of high-performance ultra-fine metal and alloy powder are expected to contribute to profits. The company will extend the date of the fund-raising project "annual output of 6000 tons of carbonyl iron powder and other series products project (phase I)" and "high-performance ultra-fine metal and alloy powder expansion project" to September 2023. The main reason why the construction progress of the "annual output of 6000 tons of carbonyl iron powder and other series of product projects (phase I)" lags behind the original plan is that the overall progress has slowed down due to public health events and the adjustment of the implementation location of the fund-raising projects. the progress of infrastructure construction in the early stage is later than expected, resulting in a lag in the implementation of fund-raising projects. The fund-raising expenditure of the "High performance Superfine Metal and Alloy Powder expansion Project" is mainly equipment expenditure. Due to the impact of public health events, the purchase and installation of some of the equipment in the project has been slightly delayed. At the same time, the purchase of imported equipment originally planned by the company has been suspended, and the proportion of funds raised is relatively low. The commissioning of the project in the fourth quarter is expected to contribute to profit increase.
Profit forecast and valuation. Due to the lower-than-expected quarter-on-quarter growth rate of the company in the third quarter, we have adjusted our profit forecast downwards. It is estimated that the company's revenue for 23-25 years will be RMB 407 million, respectively, and its net profit will be RMB 1.03 million, corresponding to RMB 1.54 million, corresponding to PE34.61/23.75/18.33 times, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the company's capacity expansion is not as expected; downstream demand is not as expected; and the company's costs are rising sharply.