Revenue in the first three quarters was flat compared with the same period last year. The company's 2023Q1-3 achieved revenue of 352 million yuan (year-on-year-5.0%), net profit of 30.28 million yuan (year-on-year-24.6%), and non-return-to-mother net profit of 18.93 million yuan (- 45.9%).
From a quarterly point of view, the revenue of 2023Q1/Q2/Q3 in a single quarter is RMB 166 million, which is + 24.9%, 7.2%, 13.7% and 3.85 million yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year, and the net profit is + 156.6%, 34.8%, 81.0%, respectively. The decline in Q3 net profit is mainly due to the decrease in income and the increase in management fees.
The gross profit margin remained stable and the expense rate increased. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's gross profit margin on sales was 92.9% (year-on-year + 0.22pp, the same as the level for the whole of 2022), and net profit margin was 10.8% (year-on-year-2.24pp, compared with the level + 3.74pp for the whole of 2022).
In terms of expense rate, the sales expense rate is 45.5% (- 0.04pp), the management expense rate is 16.5% (+ 4.04pp), the R & D expense rate is 22.8% (+ 3.86pp), and the financial expense rate is 0.83% (+ 0.55pp). The total expense rate during the period is 85.6% (+ 8.42pp), mainly due to the further improvement of share payment and R & D investment intensity.
Staphylococcus aureus vaccine phase III clinical progress in an orderly manner. Drug-resistant Staphylococcus aureus is a "superbug" recognized by WHO, which can cause serious nosocomial infection. It is a high incidence area in China, with an average detection rate of about 30% in recent years. Drug resistance leads to the ineffectiveness of existing antibiotic treatment schemes, and prophylactic vaccine is an effective means to control its transmission. at present, there are no commercial products on the market. Overseas giants such as Pfizer and Merck have failed in the late clinical stage. The company cooperated with the Army Medical University to develop recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine, summed up overseas clinical failure experience, and adopted the optimization antigen and immune program design of "multi-valent + multi-dose + adjuvant". At present, Ph3 clinical has been launched. It is expected to go public in 2025, leading the world in progress.
Investment suggestion: Olin Biology is a "small and beautiful" private vaccine company, relying on the old product tetanus vaccine to open up a new adult market. With the continuous improvement of domestic policies, the adult tetanus vaccine market is expected to further expand. AC-Hib triple vaccine will be reported for production at the beginning of 2023 and is expected to be approved soon, which is expected to further enrich the company's children's vaccine product pipeline and contribute to the performance increment. Long-term layout of the "superbug" vaccine pipeline, recombinant Staphylococcus aureus to start Ph3 clinical, the world's leading progress, is expected to fill the industry gap. According to the company's third-quarter report, we adjust our profit forecast and estimate that the company's net profit from 2023 to 2025 will be 0.62 and 122,2003,000,000 respectively (the previous value is 0.71), and the current share price will maintain an "overweight" rating corresponding to the PE of 130Compact 66gam40x.
Risk tips: the risk of product sales not up to expectations, the risk of failure in pipeline development, and so on.