share_log

科创板要追吗?

Is the Science and Technology Innovation Board going after it?

丫丫港股圈 ·  Jul 22, 2019 23:59

Source: Ya Ya Hong Kong stock circle

Author: flamingoz

Science and Technology Innovation Board earned a lot of attention on his first day on the market.

With the previous fear of listing that is the opposite of the mood, Science and Technology Innovation Board listed on the first day, out of the momentum trend.

The 25 stocks listed on the stock market are all up more than 80%. Among them, Anji Technology has risen more than fourfold, and the bosses of various companies have entered the rich list one after another, which is really enviable for a while.

20190722011972685d41095bf72.jpg

But life always goes on, and what makes investors more concerned is, after the first day of success, where will Science and Technology Innovation Board's future go?

The effect of drawing blood appears gradually.

First of all, let's not talk about Science and Technology Innovation Board, let's take a look at the old plate. Today's non-Kechuang board stocks are quite tragic. The Prev fell 1.27%, falling below 2900 points, excluding Science and Technology Innovation Board stocks.

Who says there is no triage?

In the eyes of retail investors: Kechuang VS motherboard

Dynamic picture reference from: lunar wind investment notes

Science and Technology Innovation Board's trading volume has reached 48 billion, and the daily trading volume before the Prev is only a little over 150 billion.

The most intuitive, you can look at the secondary IPO index, all fell 5%.

Science and Technology Innovation Board's stocks that have risen several times are all counted in the sub-IPO index, but they can still fall by 5%. It can only be blamed for those non-Science and Technology Innovation Board secondary new stocks, all of which have plummeted by-5% to-10% today.

The reason is very simple, we are all new stocks, are short speculation, science and technology innovation stocks rise several times a day, these original secondary new stocks a day is at most 10%, by contrast, too boring, withdraw.

According to the current rhythm of Science and Technology Innovation Board's listing, new shares will continue to be issued in the future, and the blood-drawing effect will be further amplified.

The hardest hit must be the secondary new stocks and concept stocks with similar market speculation patterns. Today, the early popularity theme stocks have fallen sharply.

However, this is not the real blood-drawing effect.

Nearly 90% of Science and Technology Innovation Board's new shares are not in circulation. When these lucrative bosses lift the ban and start selling in the secondary market, the ultimate and heaviest blood-drawing effect will come.

Enter the casino and forget the fundamentals first.

Let's review the trend of Science and Technology Innovation Board today:

The opening price rose sharply, and most of the winners began to run away.

Then fell sharply, some stocks halved, hot money began to send out to pick up the goods.

Middle: leek bought at the opening of the first day.

Picture reference from: lunar wind investment notes

After the turnover rate exceeded 50%, the stock price began to rise again, breaking new highs one after another.

After the temporary suspension of trading at a new high, the turnover rate was close to the limit and there was no more to sell. When hot money found that millions of dollars could drive the stock up by dozens of points, it realized that buying up was risky and began to stop, so the stock price gradually fell back.

This trend reflects the effect of the combination of tweak 1 and unlimited limit. In the twee1 model, the number of shares that can be sold every day is constant, but the amount of money that can be bought is still infinite, so stock prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall. When the turnover rate is extremely high, it can pull an incredible increase through a small amount of money.

Different people have different attitudes towards these trends.

Conservative investors doubt life: Science and Technology Innovation Board's stock fundamentals are general, he is afraid to touch, watching several times a day's market value across, more than 120 times the average price-to-earnings ratio, sigh.

Source: Internet

And brave investors enjoyed it: they began to buy this morning, and by the end of the day, there had been more than 40% of the surplus, praising the fun of Kechuang board one after another.

The investors who won the lottery made money, and most of them were in a happy mood, but some investors opened the market and saw that the stock price continued to soar, so they regretted selling early.

None of these mindsets are necessary, but you still have to keep a normal mind.

First of all, stocks are voting machines in the short term and weighing machines in the long run. The greed of human nature is inestimable, no matter how bad the stock is in the short term, it is possible to ascend to heaven because of the favor of capital. New share listings must be voting, not weighing. To understand that this is more of a game, not for a long time. Fundamentals certainly cannot explain the rise in the short term.

It is a skill to make money from this speculative game. But if I don't have the courage and ability, watching from a distance is a better choice.

As for those investors who seem to have made money in the short term, anyone who goes to the casino has tried to float briefly, but have you ever seen a casino where all gamblers can win money and leave?

Finally, investors who feel that they have sold too early should also know that it is impossible for stock prices to be sold at the highest level. today, there are still many stocks whose closing price is lower than the opening price.

Balancing risks and making money within your ability is still the best choice.

A minor change

There is another interesting phenomenon today.

If you compare today's trend of new shares with the previous trend of secondary new shares, you will find that Science and Technology Innovation Board has not changed much in fact.

The hottest stocks rose 3-5 times today, about equal to more than 11 times the limit of the previous IPO, 44% + 10% on the first day. The trend of Science and Technology Innovation Board's new shares today is just that the previous trend of new shares has been condensed to one day.

Including many people have seen the magical differentiation performance of China General account AH shares, but the same is true of Flat Glass Group and Green Power before, which is not uncommon.

Some people can buy at the bottom today and can float by 50% in a single day. Many times before, new shares have also risen by 50% after opening. It's nothing special. It just takes a few days less.

Nothing has changed, and the way new shares are played is almost the same as before. It's just that the numbers look eye-catching, including the winning returns of investors, which are almost the same as before.

After understanding this point, we can draw a conclusion: in fact, Science and Technology Innovation Board is not very crazy today, just like before.

Tomorrow is the key to winning.

There is another question, how will the stock price go later?

It can be seen that today, many stocks have a huge float after buying at a low level.

But this buoyancy is built on the premise that liquidity is low and is driven up by a small amount of money-many people who make money want to run away from high positions today, but tweak 1 can't.

Therefore, there will be a large number of floating stocks to cash in tomorrow, selling pressure is greater, coupled with no limit limit, will aggravate the panic, coupled with some of the passive stop-loss requirements. When trading opens tomorrow, there may be a big drop to a certain extent.

The general path of stampede under high valuation

Dynamic picture reference from: lunar wind investment notes

Therefore, just looking at today's trend, it is one-sided. Many people's accounts float substantially today, but they will lose a lot of money tomorrow. The real victory or defeat, whether or not to make money, maybe there will be a definite answer tomorrow.

Conclusion

Finally, at present, it seems that the struggle between institutions has also been reined in.

It was originally predicted that today, some stocks will lose liquidity due to the peak turnover rate, and there will be crazy speculative funds to use hundreds of millions of dollars to pull the stock price higher than Maotai. But today, most stocks begin to pull back after the turnover rate peaked. Without brainlessness, it shows that they are cautious-everyone knows that the level of the opponent is not low, and to make such a low-level mistake is to give money.

Then the follow-up, everyone's level is high, the stock is more likely to return to value quickly and gradually. This is also a great pleasure for long-term value investors.

On the whole, Science and Technology Innovation Board's first day was successful, not too crazy, similar to the rise of the original new shares. Later, we continue to return to rationality, the rationality of pricing on the first day of listing continues to improve, the possibility of cutting leeks will be lower and lower. This is good for listed companies and investors.

Therefore, we should try to keep an open and objective attitude towards Science and Technology Innovation Board, which is a new thing. There may not be many opportunities, but there are always some more choices.

Edit / Phoebe

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment