Main points of investment:
Event: Haili Wind Power released its report for the third quarter of 2023, the company's revenue in the first three quarters was 1.555 billion yuan, up 32.85% from the same period last year, and its net profit was 65 million yuan, down 72.97% from the same period last year. Among them, the company's revenue in the third quarter alone was 516 million yuan, down 0.69% from the same period last year. Hai Li's net profit was-70 million yuan, which was lower than market expectations.
Industry demand affects short-term volume and price, and impairment is a drag on stage performance. The main reason for the company's loss in the third quarter is: on the one hand, due to the long settlement cycle of the 21-year "rush to pack" project, the company set aside 73.41 million yuan for bad debts according to the accounting policy. On the other hand, the construction speed of sea breeze in our country is slow this year, and the processing fee of the industry has been reduced due to the influence of demand. at the same time, the lower demand leads to the lower utilization rate of the company's capacity, coupled with the expansion and consolidation of the new base, the company's manufacturing costs have increased correspondingly, the overall profit of the manufacturing business is low, and the Q3 single-quarter gross profit margin is 6.57%. In addition, the Q3 wind speed of the offshore wind farm invested by the company is poor, the utilization number of hours is low, and the investment income decreases accordingly, resulting in the overall performance lower than market expectations.
Jiangsu project resumes, sea breeze construction accelerates, and the company is expected to increase its price steadily in 24 years. In the first half of this year, the contradiction of offshore wind power accumulated to its peak, and the construction and bidding both fell into a state of partial stagnation. Since September, three projects in the first phase of Jiangsu, which have been stagnant for a long time, have all ushered in breakthroughs. Jiangsu projects are expected to start in the fourth quarter, and the company has significant geographical advantages in Jiangsu and is expected to benefit deeply. In addition, other regions have ushered in varying degrees of sea breeze advance, coupled with the current has entered the middle and late period of the 14th five-year Plan, it is expected that China's sea breeze installation progress is expected to be accelerated. With the recovery of industry demand, processing fees are expected to stabilize, while the company's capacity expansion is smooth, the company is expected to ship 90-1 million tons in 24 years, and the company is expected to increase prices steadily in 24 years.
The layout of production capacity continues to advance, and its own wharf has a significant advantage. The company continues to expand the sea breeze capacity, arranges the production base in advance according to local conditions, plans the newly added Nantong Xiaoyangkou base, Qidong Lu Sigang base, Yancheng coastal base, Shandong Dongying base, Shandong Rushan base, Hainan Yangpu base, etc., and signed an agreement on Wenzhou large megawatt sea breeze tower project at the end of August, which is expected to produce about 220sets of 8MW to Shanghai Tower after putting into production. The layout of the company's production base in coastal areas can effectively reduce transportation costs, and some bases have self-built terminals, which not only ensure timely delivery, but also improve product competitiveness and bargaining power, with the acceleration of China's sea wind investment and construction. the company is expected to be the first to benefit.
Adjust the profit forecast, maintain the "buy" rating: due to the overall slow construction of the domestic sea breeze in 23 years, the company's wind farm investment income is lower than the expected superimposed impact, we downgrade the company's 2023-2025 profit forecast, the company's 2023-2025 net profit is expected to be 1.23,8.47,1.613 billion yuan (the original value of 4.62,10.72,1.75 billion yuan), corresponding to 113,17,9 times PE respectively. The company is currently one of the few pure sea breeze business enterprises in China, considering that the sea breeze is moving towards a long business cycle of rapid growth, the company has great flexibility in capacity release and outstanding growth, with reference to the comparable company's average valuation level of 0.53 times PEG, still maintaining the company's "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the installed capacity of sea breeze is less than expected; the release of the company's production capacity is not as expected; the return on wind farm investment is not as expected.