业绩略低于预期，主要受铜冶炼企业纳入带来的财务费用和少数股东损益增加所致。公司第三季度实现营业收入156.21 亿元，同比增长40.65%，环比减少23.56%；归母净利润1.76 亿元，同比减少10.78%，环比减少20.23%；经营活动现金净流量0.82 亿元，同比减少77.17%，环比增加443.88%；财务费用1.35 亿元，同比增长52.64%，环比增长24.31%，主要因本期扩大贷款规模利息支出增加和子公司中金期货本期利息支出增加所致；公允价值变动收益-0.29 亿元，同比增长70%，主要受交易性金融资产公允价值变动收益增加所致；少数股东损益1.08 亿元，同比增长2057.68%，主要受新增铜冶炼企业纳入合并报表范围影响。Items:
According to the company's quarterly report for 2023, the company achieved operating income of 52.848 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 12.48 percent over the same period last year; net profit of 716 million yuan, down 31.53 percent; net profit of 664 million yuan, down 33.76 percent over the same period last year; and net cash flow of operating activities of 129 million yuan, down 84.79 percent from the same period last year. At the same time, the announcement of Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. on the adjustment of the 2023 hedging plan was issued.
Comments:
The performance was slightly lower than expected, mainly due to the financial costs brought about by the inclusion of copper smelting enterprises and the increase in profit and loss of minority shareholders. In the third quarter, the company achieved operating income of 15.621 billion yuan, an increase of 40.65% over the same period last year, a decrease of 23.56%, a net profit of 176 million yuan, a decrease of 10.78% and 20.23%, and a net cash flow of 82 million yuan from operating activities, a decrease of 77.17% over the same period last year and an increase of 443.88%. The financial expenses were 135 million yuan, an increase of 52.64% over the same period last year and 24.31% month-on-month, mainly due to the increase in interest expenses in the current period of expanding the scale of loans and the increase in interest expenses in the current period of CICC futures of the subsidiary; fair value change income was-29 million yuan, an increase of 70% over the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in fair value change income of trading financial assets. The profit and loss of minority shareholders was 108 million yuan, an increase of 2057.68% over the same period last year, mainly affected by the inclusion of new copper smelting enterprises in the scope of consolidated statements.
Lead, zinc and copper prices fluctuated mainly in the third quarter. In the third quarter, the average price of LME copper was 8367 US dollars / ton, an increase of 7.8% over the same period last year and a decrease of 1.1% compared with the same period last year. In the third quarter, the average domestic zinc price was 299,000 yuan / ton, down 14.2% from the same period last year and up 0.6% from the previous year, mainly affected by the transformation of the off-peak season and the production reduction of some overseas zinc mines. Zinc prices showed a trend of shock correction, of which the zinc price in September was 218,000 yuan / ton. down 12.3% from the same period last year, up 5.6% from the previous month In the third quarter, domestic lead prices were 16100 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.8% over the same period last year and 5.3% month-on-month, mainly due to the support of the cost of recycled lead raw materials to lead prices, but affected by the continuous accumulation of social inventory, lead prices fluctuated as a whole.
The company intends to adjust the 2023 hedging plan to further maintain performance stability. The company plans to adjust the 2023 hedging plan, increase the upper limit of the hedging ratio of the product inventory of the supply chain company from 20% to 25%, and adjust the hedging plan of Shenye Company: the variety of hedging business of Shenye Company is zinc, copper, gold and silver. At the same time, the gold hedging ratio of Shenye Company's purchased concentrate is capped at 5%, while the other contents of the 2023 hedging plan remain unchanged, and the capital source is the company's own funds. The maximum margin of hedging business is RMB 2 billion (excluding physical delivery of futures targets), which will help to further avoid the adverse impact of price fluctuations of raw materials and products on the company.
Investment advice: taking into account the decline in zinc prices and the decline in the company's trading business, we expect the company to achieve a net profit of 10.8 billion yuan (1.71 billion yuan) from 2023 to 2025 (the previous value is 13.2 pounds 1.69 billion yuan). Year-on-year growth of-11.3%, 40.2%, 18% (8.9%, 27.8, 14.0%), respectively, with reference to the historical valuation of comparable companies and companies. And taking into account the growth of the company in the layout of copper resources, give a 24-year 13-fold valuation, corresponding to the target price of 5.24 yuan, downgraded to "recommended".
Risk tips: metal prices fluctuate sharply; the expansion of the project is not as expected.