Editor's note:《Inventory of major asset classes》The section closely follows macroeconomic developments, reviews the price performance of equity, bonds, foreign exchange, and commodities in the world's major markets to help people explore more investment opportunities in major asset classes.
This month, as risk-free interest rates continued to rise, compounded by adverse factors such as the Arab-Israeli conflict, market risk appetite declined markedly, dragging down the stock market. However, expectations that the Fed will stop raising interest rates are also heating up. Nick Timiraos, a reporter known as the “New Federal Reserve News Agency,” said yesterday that the sharp rise in US bond yields is equivalent to three 25-basis point interest rate hikes. The current bond market is “helping” the Fed to tighten the financial environment, which may end the interest rate hike process.
As of October 30, 2023:
The anchor of global asset pricing continues to “dance”! The 10-year US Treasury yield broke the 5% mark this month, the highest level in 16 years.A recent study by Omoro indicates that 10-year US Treasury yields will also rise. “In the long run, yields tend to be in line with the sum of actual economic growth and inflation expectations. If both of these are around 2.5% over the next ten years, then a 5% yield is reasonable.”
In October, COMEX gold rose more than 7% cumulatively.Recently, due to the further tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East after the outbreak of the Arab-Israeli conflict, compounded by strong expectations that interest rate hikes will be suspended in November, the safe-haven effect of gold has been revealed. Spot gold has once again reached a high of 2,000 US dollars/ounce after a lapse of nearly six months.
On the stock market side, global stock markets are generally lower due to pressure on risk asset prices.The Hong Kong stock Hang Seng Index and the Technology Index fell by 2.83% and 1.69% respectively; the US S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Index fell 2.83% and 3.25% respectively.
Analysts who have previously bullied US stocks are now more cautious. Oppenheimer analyst John Stoltzfus (John Stoltzfus) is optimistic about the stock market for a long time, but he still lowered the year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 4,900 to 4,400, which is already the highest among forecasters tracked by Bloomberg.
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