The company released three quarterly results: revenue in the first three quarters was 5.005 billion yuan,-8.81% year-on-year, and net profit was 2.07 billion yuan, + 0.92% year-on-year. The company's 23Q3 realized revenue of 1.404 billion yuan, year-on-year-32.44%, month-on-month-8.24%; realized home net profit of 568 million yuan,-22.08%, month-on-month + 39.56%.
A total of 4 million tons / year of beneficiation production line has been put into production in Zimbabwe: 23Q3's "Bikita lithium ore 2 million ton / year (lithium feldspar) reconstruction and expansion project" and "Bikita lithium ore / year (spodumene) construction project" have been completed and formally put into trial production. At present, the lithium feldspar concentrate and spodumene concentrate produced by the two mineral processing projects are continuously delivered to the company's domestic lithium salt plant. It marks that the company has officially entered the era of comprehensive self-sufficiency in lithium ore, which is in line with the strategic planning expectation of the company's lithium plate. In addition, in the face of huge fluctuations in domestic lithium salt prices, the company adopts proactive strategies to reduce inventory cycle and inventory, and actively expand overseas customers with excellent product quality to obtain overseas orders with more price advantages.
Financial data: as of 23Q3, the company has about 5.382 billion yuan in cash funds and 1.381 billion yuan in inventory, and its cash flow is relatively abundant.
One of the fastest growing lithium ore targets in 2023-2024
Tanco Lithium Mine, Canada: the Tanco mine has a spodumene mining and separation system with a capacity of 180,000 tons per year. In addition, at present, the company is actively promoting the open-pit mining plan in Tanco mining area, and plans to invest 1 million tons / year mineral processing project in the new Tanco mine. It is estimated that after the new production capacity is put into production, the Tanco mine will form a raw material supply capacity of nearly 25000 tons of spodumene concentrate for LCE/ years.
Zimbabwe Bikita lithium mine: the amount of lithium mineral resources discovered by the company's Bikita mine in Zimbabwe at the time of M & An is equivalent to 849600 tons of LCE, and the company's lithium mineral resources after the increase of reserves is equivalent to 1.8378 million tons of LCE, an increase of about 116% compared with that at the time of M & A. Bikita Mine newly built 2 million tons / year lithium feldspar concentrate (technical and chemical grade lithium feldspar flexible production line) mineral processing reconstruction and expansion project and 2 million tons / year spodumene concentrate mineral processing project. The two projects were completed and formally put into trial production at the beginning of July this year. After reaching production, the company will have a capacity of 300,000 tons / year for spodumene concentrate, 300,000 tons / year for chemical grade lithium feldspar concentrate or 150,000 tons / year for technical grade lithium feldspar concentrate, which is expected to form an annual production capacity of about 60,000 tons LCE/.
Risk hint: the market demand of lithium salt and cesium rubidium salt is not up to expectations; the company's production expansion progress is lower than expected.
Investment advice: maintain a buy rating.
Revise the company's profit forecast slightly. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 2023-2025 will be 66.95 million RMB 107.17max 117.72 million (the original forecast is 76.2710 ppm 117.43 million), with a year-on-year growth rate of-16.7%, 60.1%, 9.8%, and a net profit of 25.80, 31.36, 32.03 million (the original forecast is 30.25, 34.53, 3.758) million, with a year-on-year growth rate of-21.7%, 21.5%, 2.1%. The diluted EPS is 3.62 PE 4.40 apt 4.49 yuan, and the current share price corresponds to 10 Univer 8ax. Considering that the company has two main lithium mines that are expected to expand quickly, and the profit elasticity is expected to be gradually highlighted, on the whole, we believe that the company is one of the mainstream lithium mining companies in China, one of the companies with the fastest growth in lithium resources in the next 1-2 years, maintaining a "buy" rating.