Event: the company released its Triple report for 2023. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 2.415 billion yuan, + 6.71% year-on-year; net profit of 241 million yuan, + 5.65%; and non-return net profit of 231 million yuan, + 3.78% of the same period last year.
In the third quarter of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 550 million yuan, + 20.86% compared with the same period last year, net profit of-15 million yuan,-7.90% of the same period last year, and non-return net profit of-16 million yuan, + 5.60% of the same period last year.
The consumption of moon cakes is relatively weak, and the expansion of all channels is relatively smooth. In terms of products, the revenue of 2023Q3 zongzi series / mooncake series / food series / egg products, cakes and other products is 2.9999, 1.55, 0.42, 0.38 million yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year, + 60%, + 60%, 13%, and 5%, 7%, respectively. The income of the main zongzi series of products has maintained rapid growth, and the sales of moon cakes are under pressure during the Mid-Autumn Festival. In terms of different channels, the revenue of 2023Q3 chain stores / e-commerce / merchant super / dealers / other stores is 0.82, 3.40, 0.25, 0.61 and 0.27 million yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year, which is + 10%, 29%, 1%, 7%, 22%, 22%, respectively, while e-commerce has maintained high growth, and chain stores continue to repair. From a regional point of view, the revenue of 2023Q3 in East China / North China / Central China / South China / Southwest / Northwest / Northeast / overseas / e-commerce is 1.72, 2.28, 0.11, 0.12, 0.08, 0.02, 0.03, and 0.9 billion yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year, + 8%, 55, 100, 000, 000, As of the end of 2023Q3, the number of dealers was 737, an increase of 30 compared with the beginning of the year, and investment promotion continued.
The cost control tends to be strict, and the loss range is narrowed. The company's 23Q3 gross profit margin of 28.67%, year-on-year-5.12pct, is expected to be mainly due to the increase in the price of raw materials. In terms of expense rate, the 23Q3 sales expense rate is reduced to 25.23%, and the management expense rate is reduced to 6.87% by 1.68pct. The cost control is relatively strict. To sum up, 23Q3, the company's net interest rate of-2.73%, year-on-year + 0.35pct, is expected to tighten cost control and narrow losses.
The overall potential energy is up, waiting to be repaired gradually. On the revenue side, the company has room for both quantity and price. In terms of price increase, considering the gift nature of seasonal food, the development of Wufangzhai food gift and group purchase scene is expected to upgrade the product structure and promote the average price growth. In terms of volume increase, considering product development, channel expansion and regional expansion, zongzi product sales have not yet reached the ceiling. At the same time, the company is expected to promote moon cakes, rice balls and other large single products to create relay zongzi, to achieve sustainable growth. On the profit side, catering recovery and cyclical smoothness are expected to increase the overall net interest rate. On the one hand, with the recovery of the national catering industry, the company's chain plate is expected to stabilize and warm up; on the other hand, the company weakens cyclical fluctuations by replenishing food products, promoting daily sales, replenishing pastries and Chinese dim sum products, and so on. Daily sales, improve capacity utilization and scale effect.
Investment advice: maintain a buy rating. According to the three quarterly reports, we expect the company's revenue for 23-25 years to be RMB 26333027Universe 3.492 billion (the previous year was RMB 3.324362 million) and the net profit to be RMB 1.89Universe 246pm 292 million (the previous period is RMB 219pm 280.346 million), maintaining the "Buy" rating.
Risk tips: the channel expansion is not as expected, the seasonal fluctuation risk of product sales, food safety risk.