The 2023Q3 of the company realized a net profit of 1.537 billion yuan, which was + 36% compared with the same period last year and-13% compared with the previous year. The company's 2023Q1-Q3 realized revenue of 81.119 billion yuan, + 39% compared with the same period last year, and realized net profit of 5.077 billion yuan, + 111% compared with the same period last year. The company's 2023Q3 achieved revenue of 31.736 billion yuan, year-on-year + 41%, month-on-month + 13%; net profit of 1.537 billion yuan, + 36%,-13%; gross profit of 16.70%, year-on-year + 3.43pct, month-on-month + 0.56pct; net profit rate of 5.44%, year-on-year + 1.12pct, month-on-month-1.48pct.
The company's Q3 component shipments continue to improve, and its profitability is stable compared with the previous month. We estimate that the shipments of 2023Q3 components are about 18.5GW, with a month-on-month ratio of more than 23%. The confirmed intake of components exceeds 16GW, with a month-on-month ratio of more than 33%. The production capacity of the company's N-type batteries and components continues to climb, and we estimate that the shipments of 2023Q3 N-type components are expected to exceed 16%. We estimate that the company's Q3 wafer shipments are close to 4GW, a significant increase from the previous month. Driven by the continuous increase in the self-supply rate of silicon wafers and the increase in the proportion of shipments of N-type components, we estimate that the net profit of the company's 2023Q3 components is about 0.11 yuan / W, which is basically the same as the previous month.
The company attaches importance to the development of overseas markets and accelerates the global layout of production capacity. On October 18, the company announced that it plans to build a vertically integrated large base project with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of high-purity silicon, 30GW wafers and 5GW battery modules in the United Arab Emirates. At present, the company has completed the Southeast Asian 6.5GW component integration project and planned the American 5GW component project. The proposed UAE integration project is expected to accelerate the company's overseas capacity layout and enhance the supply capacity of overseas customers.
The company's distributed systems and support business is growing steadily. We estimate that the company's 2023Q3 distributed system shipments are expected to reach 2.2 GW. Q3 unit profit is expected to reach 0.18-0.19 yuan / W. We estimate that the company's 2023Q3 stent shipments reached 2.3GW, an increase of about 15% month-on-month. The overall solution capability of the company's photovoltaic system continues to improve.
The company accelerates the layout of energy storage business and promotes the coordinated development of optical storage integration. We estimate that the shipments of the company's 2023Q3 energy storage system are close to 500MWh, which is significantly higher than the previous month. The company has developed a high-temperature cell with a monomer capacity of 300 cycles, and launched a new generation of ten thousand cycles liquid cooling system TrinaStorage Elementa with "Tianhe core" as the core to further reduce the kilowatt-hour cost.
Risk tips: capacity investment is not as expected, industry competition intensifies, photovoltaic cell technology iteration risk and so on.
Investment advice: downgrade earnings forecasts and maintain a "buy" rating. Taking into account the impact of the rapid decline in component prices on the company's profit, we downgrade our profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit from 2023 to 2025 will be RMB 69.64 billion (RMB 10.678 billion) (the original forecast is RMB 12.067 billion), compared with the same period last year. The corresponding share price of PE is RMB 3.20, 4.33 and 4.91, respectively, compared with the same period last year.