23Q3 net profit is 300 million yuan,-50% / month-on-month-40%, maintain the "buy" rating Guangxin shares released three-quarter report on October 30, the first three quarters revenue of 5.09 billion yuan, year-on-year-23%, return to the mother net profit of 1.32 billion yuan (deducting 1.24 billion yuan),-28% year-on-year (deducting non-year-on-year-29%) Of which Q3 revenue is 1.32 billion yuan, year-on-year-38% / month-on-month-29%, return-to-mother net profit of 300 million yuan (deducting non-post-280 million yuan), year-on-year-50% / month-on-month-40% (deduction of non-year-on-year-52% / month-on-month-43%).
Considering that the pesticide boom is still waiting for recovery, we have lowered our product prices and gross profit margin forecasts, and adjusted the company's 23-25 return net profit forecast to 17.2 11xPE 2.29 billion yuan (the previous value is 2.79 billion yuan), corresponding to 1.892.51 Wind 2.93 yuan, combined with the comparable company's 24-year Wind consensus forecast average 11xPE, giving the company 24-year 11xPE with a target price of 27.61 yuan. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Q3 pesticide volume and price all declined compared with the same period last year, and the single-quarter gross profit margin was under pressure due to the off-season and insufficient market demand. 23Q3 pesticide prices declined as a whole. According to Zhongnong Lihua, the market average price of diuron / glyphosate / thiophanate-methyl / carbendazim, the main pesticide products of 23Q3 Company, was 3.3x4.2 / ton, down 48%, 7%, 14% and 14% respectively. The month-on-month change + 16% Uniqel 1% Maxima 3% Universe 2%. According to the company announcement, the income of 23Q3's pesticide business reached 530 million yuan, down 44% from the same period last year, the sales volume was 17486 tons, down 5% from the same period last year, and the price was 300,000 yuan / ton, down 41% from the same period last year. Q3 company comprehensive gross profit margin year-on-year-7.6pct to 37.8%, period expense rate year-on-year + 2.1pct to 14.5%.
Ion-exchange membrane caustic soda was put into production to optimize the profit structure, and the fine chemical sector paid a premium by volume according to Baichuan Yingfu, 23Q3's intermediate plate main product p-nitrochlorobenzene / o-nitrochlorobenzene price 7535max 5327 yuan / ton, yoy-20%/-43%,qoq+4%/+25%. According to the company announcement, the income of the Q3 intermediate plate reached 500 million yuan, down 28% from the same period last year, and the sales volume was 182000 tons, + 322% compared with the same period last year. Due to the adjustment of product structure, the sales unit price was 2772 yuan / ton, down 83% from the same period last year. Benefiting from the commissioning of the ionic membrane caustic soda project, the company's main raw materials such as liquid alkali, liquid chlorine and hydrogen are self-supplied, which helps optimize the profit structure and partially offset the decline in the prices of intermediates and crude drugs.
The prosperity of pesticide products is expected to be repaired. According to Zhongnong Lihua, as of October 27, the company's main products diuron / glyphosate / thiophanate-methyl / carbendazim / a pair of nitrochlorobenzene / o-nitrochlorobenzene Q4 have changed their average price compared with the previous year-8% hand-off, 4% color-4%, 4%, "23%," 31%, and the prices of most pesticides have been at the bottom of the range since 2020. In the future, with the resumption of replenishment of the industrial chain and the expectation of high crop prices to support demand, we believe that the industry boom is expected to recover gradually. At the same time, the company is committed to the expansion of new varieties of phosgene industry chain. In high value-added pesticide projects such as carbendazim, o-nitroaniline and phosgene phase II projects, the sustainable layout of phosgene industry chain is expected to help the company's high-quality development in the future.
Risk tips: raw material prices fluctuate sharply; new projects fail to reach production expectations; downstream demand falls short of expectations.