Event: the company released its report for the third quarter of 2023. In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 2.265 billion yuan, an increase of 2.72% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 805 million yuan, an increase of 26.81% over the same period last year.
Comments:
The operating income of the companies under the State-owned assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Hubei Province is stable. The company is the only highway listed company in Hubei Province, the company's road and bridge assets are mostly the main roads in Hubei Province, the regional transport demand is large, with good growth space. The group currently owns the expressway franchise of Hanyi section of Shanghai-Chongqing expressway, Dasui section of Ma'an expressway, Huangxian section of Qijia expressway, Hubei section of Daguang expressway and Xinxian section of Daguang expressway, as well as shares in Jiayu Yangtze River Highway Bridge.
The operating mileage of expressway is 586 km, and the toll roads of the company are all operating expressways, and the franchise of operating expressways is obtained by means of investment, construction and acquisition.
The industry has ushered in the information tide, and the development prospect of intelligent technology business is good. With the implementation of intelligence and information strategy and the deepening of the integration of industrial chain and innovation chain, the highway industry ushered in the information tide. As an important part of traffic infrastructure, expressway has a good prospect of intelligent development. Through the identification of technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises, the company is actively applying for high-tech enterprises, deepening product research and development, intelligent transportation operation platform III and other products steadily. The company actively participated in scientific research interaction, two projects were approved by national R & D projects, and one project won the second prize for scientific and technological progress in the province. Make a solid push around the capital? Taihang Mountain Energy Information Technology Industrial Base Mechanical and Electrical Phase 7 and liquid cooling transformation project, successfully won the bid for the external "intelligent transportation" project.
External competitive or collaborative road network changes and road renovation works have brought varying degrees of positive or negative impact on the expressways under the group. Starting from December 11, 2022, the Wu-Huang Expressway (the Wuhan-Huangshi section of the Shanghai-Chongqing Expressway) has stopped tolling. except for the 3.98 km common line with the East Hubei Yangtze River Highway Bridge, the whole section has implemented "zero rate" traffic, which has a great diversion effect on the Huangxian Expressway under the group. From March 28, 2023, pavement upgrading and renovation construction was carried out on the South Henan Expressway, with traffic restrictions such as alternately closing some lanes and banning heavy transport vehicles, which directly or indirectly affected the flow of trucks of the Group's Daguangbei Expressway and South Henan Expressway; the road conditions of national highways G106, G107, G230 and G318 parallel to the road sections under the Group were significantly improved, and some trucks chose to pass through the national roads to reduce transport costs.
Profit forecast: for the first time to cover the "overweight" rating. It is estimated that from 2023 to 2025, the operating income of the company will be 30.02 7.54x/7.02x/6.14x 3.498 million yuan respectively, and the net profit of homing will be 837 Universe 9000 Universe 1.029 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding income will be 1.029 billion yuan respectively.
Risk hints: domestic and foreign macro situation changes more than expected; macro policy changes; charging policy changes; business development is not as expected; traffic flow is not up to expected profit forecast and valuation model is lower than expected