Event: the company released its three-quarter report in 2023, showing that its operating income in the first three quarters of 2023 was 188.404 billion yuan, down 17.23% from the same period last year, and its net profit was 5.352 billion yuan, down 0.85% from the same period last year. Q3 realized operating income of 54.342 billion yuan, down 20.85% from the same period last year and 19.83% from the previous year, and the net profit from the home was 1.936 billion yuan, down 105.35% from the same period last year and up 20.7% from the previous year.
The volume and price of electrolytic aluminum rose, and the profit increased: volume: in the first three quarters of 2023, the company produced 12.46 million tons of alumina, down 7.35 percent from the same period last year; electrolytic aluminum 4.93 million tons, down 3.78 percent from the same period last year; and coal output of 9.69 million tons, up 19.19 percent over the same period last year. Q3 produced 4.23 million tons of alumina, down 20, 000 tons from the previous month; primary aluminum 1.87 million tons, an increase of 340000 tons; and coal output of 3.47 million tons, down 50, 000 tons from the previous month. Price: the average price of Changjiang aluminum in the first three quarters was 18611 yuan / ton, down 8.4% from the same period last year. The average price of Changjiang aluminum Q3 was 18832 yuan / ton, up 2.4% from the same period last year and 1.67% from the previous year. Benefits:
The average price of pre-baked anodes in the first three quarters of ① was 5604.9 yuan / ton, down 20.3% from the same period last year. The average price of Q3 prebaked anodes was 4847.5 yuan / ton, down 37.26% from the same period last year, and 8.87% from the previous year. The average price of hydropower in Yunnan in the first three quarters of ② is 0.39 yuan / kwh, which is basically the same as the same period last year; the average price of hydropower in Q3 in Yunnan is 0.318 yuan / kwh (- 0.112 yuan / kwh). The average price of self-contained electricity in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Gansu and Qinghai decreased by 0.026 yuan / kwh from the previous month, reflected in the cost side, by 351 yuan / ton. The cost of raw materials and electricity decreased, and the company's month-on-month profit increased.
The implementation of key projects has been accelerated, and the advantages of integration of the industrial chain have gradually emerged: ① Yunaluminum shares agreed to transfer its 100,000 tons / year spare capacity index of electrolytic aluminum to the company's subsidiary Qinghai Branch; Inner Mongolia Huayun Phase III 420000 ton electrolytic aluminum project construction; Huaren new material electrolytic cell technical transformation is coming to an end. We expect that when the full capacity is put into production, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity of the company is expected to increase by 620,000 tons per year, and the company's electrolytic aluminum sector will still benefit from the capacity growth when there is little increase in industry production capacity.
② continues to accelerate the acquisition of domestic and foreign resources, adding 21 million tons of domestic bauxite resources in the first half of the year. In addition, the 2 million ton alumina project of Guangxi Huazheng Phase II is progressing smoothly, Silver Star Energy Ningdong 250MW photovoltaic project grid-connected power generation, Helanshan 91.8MW fan renovation project approval to start, Chinalco Shandong, Shanxi Zhongrun, and other five distributed photovoltaic projects start construction, we believe that when all the above projects are put into production, the company's industrial chain integration advantages continue to show, electrolytic aluminum green electricity proportion is expected to further improve.
Earnings forecast: we expect diluted earnings per share from 2023 to 2025 to be 0.36,0.44,0.62 yuan respectively, and the PE of the corresponding stock price is 17.2x, 13.8x, 9.9x respectively.
Risk factors: the demand for electrolytic aluminum is lower than expected, and the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is limited.