The offline advantage is solid, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Ximai Food 2023Q1-Q3 achieved a total revenue of 1.133 billion yuan, an increase of 17.6% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 93 million yuan, an increase of 9.6% over the same period last year. 2023Q3 realized a total revenue of 432 million yuan, an increase of 30.6% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 27 million yuan, down 28.7% from the same period last year. Due to the impact of the company's short-term expenses, we downgrade the profit forecast for 2023-2025. It is estimated that the return net profit in 2023-2025 is 1.21,1.44,1.73 (the previous value is 1.32,1.61,1.88) billion yuan, the EPS is 0.54,0.64,0.78 (the previous value is 0.59,0.72,0.84) respectively, and the current stock price corresponds to PE of 24.5,20.6,17.0 times. The proportion of the company's online channels is gradually increasing, and the advantages of offline channels are stable, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Demand is picking up, revenue is growing rapidly, and all categories have achieved a year-on-year increase of 30.6% compared with the same period last year. Specific products: 2023Q3 pure oatmeal accelerated growth; compound oatmeal continues to grow rapidly; the company actively launched new cold oatmeal products, cold oatmeal achieved rapid growth. From a sub-channel point of view, both online and offline channels have achieved growth, among which e-commerce channels are growing rapidly.
Looking to the future, the company continues to promote innovation, online and offline full-channel layout, accelerate channel sinking, we expect the company's revenue to grow by double digits in 2023.
The impact of short-term sales expenses on 2023Q3 net interest rate 2023Q3 reduced its parent net interest rate to 6.29% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to: (1) the increase in sales expense rate 5.9pct to 33.4%; (2) the reduction of government subsidy tax rebate. The increase in sales expense rate is mainly due to the company's 2023Q3 online promotion efforts, offline promotion efforts are still relatively stable. 2023Q3's gross profit margin rose to 46.3% year-on-year, mainly due to a decline in the price of raw materials other than oats and economies of scale. Looking to the future, with the reflection of scale effect and the decline of raw material costs, the gross profit margin is expected to improve; after the centralized expenditure in the third quarter, the 2023Q4 fee is under control, and the annual fee rate is expected to be more stable.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downside risks, new product promotion risks less than expected, food safety risks.