Main points of investment
Q3 company's performance grew steadily, in line with the company's expectations: 2023 Q1-Q3 company revenue of 1.15 billion yuan, year-on-year + 9.40%, return to the mother net profit of 340 million yuan, year-on-year + 0.93%, deducted non-return net profit of 330 million yuan, + 2.31%. Q3 single-quarter revenue of 480 million yuan, year-on-year + 23.25%, month-on-month + 46.52%, return-to-mother net profit 170 million yuan, year-on-year + 37.23%, month-on-month + 104.73%, deducted non-return net profit 160 million yuan, year-on-year + 42.02%, month-on-month + 106.98%.
Q3 sales net profit margin increased significantly, the company's profitability improved significantly: 2023Q1-Q3 sales gross profit margin of 48.78%, year-on-year + 1.9pct, sales net profit rate of 29.48%, year-on-year-2.5pct, period expense rate of 19.6%, year-on-year + 7.0pct, of which sales expense rate was 3.4%, year-on-year + 0.5pct, management expense rate (including R & D) was 18.4%, year-on-year + 6.4pct, financial expense rate was-2.2% Year-on-year + 0.1pct Among them, Q3 single-quarter sales gross profit margin is 49.6%, year-on-year + 2.37pct, month-on-month + 0.15pct, net sales margin 34.58%, year-on-year + 3.52pct, month-on-month + 9.83pct. It is expected that with the company's TOPCon, xBC new business orders confirmed increase, profitability is expected to continue to improve.
Contract liabilities-inventory is high, new orders are abundant to ensure performance growth: as of the end of 2023Q3, the company's contract liabilities are 1.66 billion yuan, year-on-year + 128.69%, inventory is 1.67 billion yuan, year-on-year + 94.72%, the company's newly signed orders increased significantly. In 2023, the net cash flow of Q1-Q3 operating activities is 540 million yuan, and the cash flow is in good condition.
TOPCon and BC new technology continue to release volume, photovoltaic laser equipment leader Hengqiang: Longji in the semi-annual report phone will say that in the next 5 years XBC will be the absolute mainstream route, but the specific technical route (HPBC, HJT-BC and Topcon-BC) has not yet been determined, and long based on the September announcement of Tongchuan 12GW HPBC pro battery project, Aixu is promoting Yiwu 15GW double-sided ABC battery module project. We believe that the follow-up XBC process route should continue to focus on, due to the graphical complexity of BC, the company as the leader of laser equipment will continue to benefit.
In terms of TOPCon process, as of the date of disclosure, the laser doping equipment developed by the company has signed a contract of 450GWO, which is expected to continue to increase in the second half of the year, and the photovoltaic PERC laser leader is always strong in the TOPCon era; according to the company's official Wechat account, the company's laser-induced sintering technology LIF can improve battery efficiency by more than 0.2%, and the company's LIF equipment order capacity exceeds 100GW by mid-September. In addition, the heterojunction LIA laser repair technology has obtained mass production orders, and a number of technical routes of products have entered the release period.
Profit forecast and investment rating: taking into account the pace of acceptance confirmation, we maintain the company's 2023-2025 return net profit of 5.5pm 8.3pm 1.04 billion, corresponding to the previous share price PE is 33-22-18 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: photovoltaic installation is lower than expected, new product research and development is lower than expected, downstream production expansion is not as expected.