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友谊时光(6820.HK):新游《浮生忆玲珑》上线在即 有望贡献业绩增量

Friendship Time (6820.HK): The launch of the new tour “Living in Wonderful Life” is expected to contribute to increased performance

中信建投證券 ·  Oct 31, 2023 12:02

Core views

As a leader in the field segment, the company is deeply involved in the women's mobile game circuit. It has strong self-research, distribution and operation capabilities, and a rich and diverse product line. Since 2023H1, the revenue and download volume of old games have declined to a certain extent due to the influence of the industry's overall market, but overall, the core game flow is stable, and they all have the ability to generate continuous revenue. As the company's strategic flagship product in the future, the new tour “Fusheng Wai Yu” is a sequel to the “Fusheng Wei Qing Ge” IP. It is expected that the New Year's Day edition will be launched in early 2024. Judging from the three aspects of the current product's own quality, test data, and player reputation, “Wonderful Life” is likely to become the next popular ancient strategy game, which is expected to drive overall performance growth.

dynamically

As a leader in the field segment, the company is deeply involved in the women's mobile game circuit. It has strong self-research, distribution and operation capabilities, and a rich and diverse product line.

The company has a unique ability to create explosive products in the traditional dominance of ancient RPG women and game Saida. At the same time, it adheres to long-term refined operations, maintained high user stickiness, helped build products with a long life cycle, and maintained relatively stable long-term revenue. Since 2023H1, the revenue and download volume of old games have declined to a certain extent due to the influence of the overall market of the industry, but overall, the flow of core games is stable, and they all have the ability to generate continuous revenue.

The new tour “Living in Wonder Memories” begins a key product cycle, which is expected to drive overall performance growth.

At present, the company's three key reserve games, “Memories of Excellence,” “Sword and Lake,” and “Code: PE”, cover different segments, which not only give full play to the competitive advantages of the company's original game IP, but also achieve significant expansion in new fields. The company's multi-category and multi-theme game matrix will help open up more room for revenue growth.

As the company's strategic flagship product in the future, the new-generation female mobile game “Fusheng Reminiscent” is a sequel to the company's future strategic flagship product. It received a version number in February this year, several rounds of small-scale testing were conducted this year, and the paid file deletion test began in July. All data performed well. Currently, the rating on TapTap has reached 9.3 points, and the company's game ratings on this platform have reached 44,000. The number of reservations for station B has reached 9 points, and the number of reservations reached 36,000. The game scene and character modeling have all received high praise. “Fusheng Remembering” is expected to be launched on New Year's Day in early 2024. Referring to the company's similar popular product “Fusheng Wei Qing Ge”, product flow is expected to continue to grow after launch. It is expected to have a long life cycle, ARPPU will remain stable, and have the ability to generate continuous and stable revenue.

Profit forecast: Considering the upcoming launch of the new tour and corresponding purchase volume costs, we expect the company's revenue for 2023-2024 to be 1.05 billion yuan/1.88 billion yuan, YOY -31%/78%, respectively, and adjusted net profit of -112 million yuan/296 million yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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