主业稳健运行，收入增速好于预期。我们判断收入表现较好主要得益于：秋季“课前到书”教材发行工作顺利开展，奠定公司稳健业绩基本盘；去年同期部分教辅图书由于物流等因素收入确认置后，带来一定低基数；公司持续丰富教育出版产品，教辅产品质量提升驱动销售增长。一般图书方面，尽管前三季度整体图书零售市场压力尚存，但我们判断一方面公司一般图书收入占比约15%因此影响相对有限，同时公司持续发力短视频、直播等途径，把握新兴渠道红利。具体分业务来看，三季度出版业务销售码洋17.9 亿元，同比增长18.8%，收入8.8 亿元，同比增长5.2%；发行业务销售码洋20.6 亿元，同比增长15.2%，收入19.0 亿元，同比增长14.8%。3Q23's performance is better than we expected.
The company announced 3Q23 results: revenue of 2.83 billion yuan, an increase of 14.7% over the same period last year, slightly better than we expected (2.6 billion yuan). We judged that it was mainly due to the good performance of teaching materials and auxiliary business; the net profit of returning home was 359 million yuan, an increase of 30.2% over the same period last year, which was also better than we expected (305 million yuan), mainly due to better income performance.
Trend of development
The main business is running steadily, and the income growth rate is better than expected. We judge that the good income performance is mainly due to: the smooth development of the release of the textbook "pre-class Books" in autumn, which laid the foundation for the company's sound performance; in the same period last year, some teaching and auxiliary books were confirmed due to logistics and other factors. bring a certain low base; the company continues to enrich educational publishing products, and the improvement of the quality of teaching and auxiliary products drives sales growth. In terms of general books, although there is still pressure on the overall book retail market in the first three quarters, we judge that on the one hand, the company's general book revenue accounts for about 15%, so the impact is relatively limited, at the same time, the company continues to make short videos, live broadcasts and other channels to grasp emerging channel dividends. According to the specific business, the sales of the publishing business in the third quarter were 1.79 billion yuan, an increase of 18.8% over the same period last year, and the revenue was 880 million yuan, an increase of 5.2% over the same period last year. The sales of the publishing business was 2.06 billion yuan, an increase of 15.2% over the same period last year, and the revenue was 1.9 billion yuan, an increase of 14.8% over the same period last year.
The gross profit margin is robust compared with the same period last year, and the increase in sales expenses is obvious. 3Q23's gross profit margin is 31.9%, which is basically the same as the same period last year. From a business perspective, the gross profit margin of the publishing / distribution business is 7.6% and 19.1% respectively, and the year-on-year changes are all less than 1ppt. In terms of expenses, 3Q23's sales expenses increased by 19.4% compared with the same period last year, and the corresponding sales rate rose to 10.3%. We judge that publicity and promotion may increase due to the strong competition in the overall book retail market.
The integration and innovation of the industrial chain has been continuously promoted. In terms of digital publishing, the digital teaching material service platform for primary and secondary schools published in Shandong Province was officially launched in September, and the platform cooperated deeply with the people's Education Society to provide rich media teaching resources for teachers and students in Shandong Province. the company said that it plans to actively promote the opening of accounts and the training of digital teaching material platform, and install a trial digital teaching material service platform in Rizhao, Linyi, Heze and other places. In terms of the integration of culture and travel, in September, the "International Research Camp of Chinese and Foreign Youth Exchange Base for Chinese excellent traditional Culture" opened in Qufu. We believe that the project relies on the advantages of Confucian culture in Qufu. It is expected to explore an innovative path for the integrated development of culture, tourism and education.
Profit forecast and valuation
Keep the earnings forecast for 2023X 2024 unchanged, and the current share price corresponds to 10A 9x 2023max 2024 Pmax E. Maintain an outperform industry rating and target price of 11.2 yuan, corresponding to 13 prime 12 times 2023 Universe E in 2024. There is 31% upside room for the target price compared to the current price.
Risk
Industry policy changes, the risk of rising paper prices, the impact of potential goodwill impairment, population growth slowed down.
