华统股份(002840):2023Q3成本再次突破 出栏快速增长

Huatong Co., Ltd. (002840): 2023Q3 costs once again broke through the market and grew rapidly

國信證券 ·  10/31/2023

The breeding cost breaks through again, and the advantage of unit excess income is verified again. The company's 2023Q3 consolidated statement made a net profit of 3.2843 million yuan,-97.38% compared with the same period last year, turning a loss from a loss to a profit from the previous month to a profit of 1.9058 million yuan, a year-on-year net profit of-101.82%, significantly reducing the loss compared with the previous year. In the third quarter alone, the company's performance is eye-catching, and the cost of pig-raising business has declined rapidly. From a business point of view: 1) at the breeding end, the overall profit of the Q3 pig plate is expected to be close to 14 million yuan, and the impairment is expected to be about 77 million yuan. Among them, 502200 fat pigs are fenced, and the total operating loss of commercial pigs is estimated to be about 59 million yuan, which is estimated to be about 120 yuan per head; 19300 piglets are fenced, with an estimated loss of about 1 million yuan; and about 6300 sows are eliminated, with an estimated loss of about 3 million yuan. 2) other businesses: the slaughtering end is expected to make a profit of about 15 million yuan and a meat loss of about 1.5 million yuan. In addition, the cost of headquarters is expected to be close to 30 million yuan. From the Q3 performance, we calculate that the company's complete cost is close to 16.816.9yuan / kg, which is further lower than 2023Q2's 17.5yuan / kg. In addition, the company is located in Zhejiang, with an average pig sales price of 15.93yuan / kg in the third quarter, which has obvious regional advantages.

The cash flow is good, and the production capacity of aquaculture is accelerated. By the end of 2023Q3, the company's monetary capital has reached 685 million yuan, and there is plenty of financing space in the future. At the same time, the company's productive biological assets 2023Q3 reached 263 million yuan at the end of the year, an increase of 5.6% over the previous month. It is one of the listed companies with few month-on-month increase in production capacity, and is expected to ensure a faster growth in the subsequent listing. The company has carried out the elimination of high-price and low-efficiency sows from 2022Q3, and 2023Q2 has been basically completed. At present, the company has built more than 3 million self-propagating and self-feeding integrated building culture capacity in Zhejiang Province, and is also actively laying out other breeding capacity. We expect the company to produce about 2.4 million heads and 5 million heads in 2023-2024. it is one of the enterprises with the fastest growth in this pig cycle and is expected to become a new cycle growth stock.

Huatong has three core advantages and is expected to create unit excess income plus cyclical growth stocks with fast growth.

Specifically: 1) Regional advantages lead to excess income of units. Zhejiang aquaculture assets are scarce: first, Zhejiang is a pig marketing area, and the average price of local commercial pigs is usually close to 2 yuan / kg higher than the national average price; second, there are few farmers in Zhejiang and belong to natural breeding-free areas. it has a natural advantage for the prevention and control of African classical swine fever and other diseases. 2) the advantage of backwardness brings the excess income of breeding. Huatong is a non-plague breeding dark horse, the reverse expansion at the bottom of the cycle makes the company not only benefit from the talent accumulation and technology upgrading dividends brought by the industry expansion, but also have cost advantages such as breeding pigs. 3) the capital advantage establishes the growth of the column. The company has diversified sources of funds such as convertible bonds, fixed increase of major shareholders and government farming subsidies; in addition, the slaughtering cash flow is also stable all the year round, which is expected to provide financial guarantee for the company's rapid expansion.

Risk tips: the risk of fluctuations in the prices of pigs and raw materials, and the risk of large-scale outbreaks of uncontrollable animal diseases.

Investment advice: maintain a buy rating. It is estimated that the return net profit from 2023 to 2025 is 0.09xpx 6.95 / 3.588 billion yuan, the EPS is 0.01max 1.15max 5.92 yuan respectively, and the corresponding share price PE is 1177-15-3 X.

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