Core viewpoints
Taihe Xinliao achieved revenue of 2.91 billion yuan in 2023, down 0.55% from the same period last year, up 3.83% from the same period last year, and realized a net profit of 278 million yuan, down 8.65% from the same period last year. Among them, the corresponding Q3 company realized operating income of 969 million yuan, an increase of 13.87% over the same period last year; a net profit of 63 million yuan, an increase of 372.66% over the same period last year, a decrease of 20.17%; and a net profit of 45 million yuan, an increase of 500.52% over the same period last year and a decrease of 34.26%. The price differences of 23Q3, spandex 40D and 20D have all declined, and the profit of the company's spandex plate has been affected. with the marginal repair of the industry as a whole and the gradual release of the company's product capacity, the company's operating volume is expected to increase gradually.
Event
The company released the third quarterly report of 2023: in the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 2.91 billion yuan, an increase of 3.83% over the same period last year; net profit of 278 million yuan, down 8.65% from the same period last year; and net profit of 236 million yuan, down 12.21% from the same period last year. Among them, the corresponding Q3 company realized operating income of 969 million yuan, an increase of 13.87% over the same period last year; a net profit of 63 million yuan, an increase of 372.66% over the same period last year, a decrease of 20.17%; and a net profit of 45 million yuan, an increase of 500.52% over the same period last year and a decrease of 34.26%.
Brief comment
Spandex continues to be under pressure, and the company's Q3 performance has declined month-on-month.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 2.91 billion yuan, an increase of 3.83% over the same period last year; net profit of 278 million yuan, down 8.65%; and non-return net profit of 236 million yuan, down 12.21% from the same period last year. Among them, the corresponding Q3 company realized operating income of 969 million yuan, an increase of 13.87% over the same period last year; a net profit of 63 million yuan, an increase of 372.66% over the same period last year, a decrease of 20.17%; and a net profit of 45 million yuan, an increase of 500.52% over the same period last year and a decrease of 34.26%.
In 2023, the average price differences between Q3, spandex 40D and 20D were 12644 yuan / ton and 17347 yuan / ton respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 1.53% and-19.99%, month-on-month changes of-8.94% and-11.56%, respectively. The prices of major raw materials MDI and PTMEG were 21142 yuan / ton and 19823 yuan / ton, 6.82% and-13.36% respectively, and 11.91% and 1.66% respectively. Spandex 40D and 20D price differences are falling month-on-month, the overall profit is still under pressure; with the overall marginal repair of the industry, and the gradual release of the company's product capacity, the company's operating volume is expected to gradually increase.
The aramid industrialization project is planned to land, waiting for the new project to release the growth momentum of the company to actively layout the new material business, and the related projects have entered the small-scale, pilot-scale and industrialization stage to continuously promote the production capacity construction of aramid and support the future development of the company. On July 28, the company announced that it planned to build a highly efficient and intelligent intermediate aramid industrialization project, which will build a production line with an annual output of 20,000 tons of high-performance intermediate aramid and its derivative products, and accelerate the market expansion of downstream aramid coating and other new applications, with a total investment of 1.3 billion yuan. The company continues to conduct Ecody? Technology development, on September 28, 40,000 tons / year fiber green treatment technology industrialization project was officially put into production in Penglai, Shandong Province, promoting the landing of green printing and dyeing technology.
Profit forecast and valuation: the company's net profit in 2023, 2024 and 2025 is expected to be 390 million, 640 million and 870 million respectively, EPS is 0.45,0.74 and 1.01 yuan respectively, PE is 35X, 21X and 16X respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk analysis.
(1) the risk of rising production costs: the company's production of raw materials are mainly PTMG, MDI, acyl chloride, diamine and other chemical products, the main raw materials account for a relatively high proportion of operating costs, raw material price fluctuations will have a greater impact on the company's profitability; (2) the risk of product price fluctuations: spandex is a fully competitive industry, its product price fluctuations are large, the impact on the company's performance is very obvious. If the capacity expansion is maintained at a high speed, it will put greater pressure on the supply and demand of the industry and lead to a sharp decline in profits. Although the competition pattern of aramid industry is relatively good, with the expansion of production capacity and the addition of new competitors, the risk of periodic and structural price fluctuations cannot be ruled out. (3) the risk of intensified market competition: Aramid is a global market, the technical difficulty is relatively high, the competition pattern is relatively good, and the market is relatively rational, but the enterprises in the industry are also actively expanding. There are also new enterprises planning to build production capacity. In the future, with the addition of new manufacturers and the introduction of new capacity, once the supply is greatly increased, the competition is also likely to intensify.