Event: the company released the third quarterly report of 2023, 3Q23 achieved revenue of 8.25 billion yuan, year-on-year-3.4%, return to the mother net profit of 1.15 billion yuan, + 12.6% year-on-year. 1~3Q23, the company achieved a total revenue of 28.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.0% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 6.11 billion yuan, an increase of 14.1% over the same period last year.
Wind speed affects the output of wind power, and photovoltaic power generation is higher than the same period last year. In terms of power generation, 3Q23 produces 15.8 billion kilowatt-hours, + 4.0% year-on-year. Among them, wind power generation is 11.57 billion kWh,-2.5% compared with the same period last year, which we believe is mainly affected by the decline in wind speed; photovoltaic and other renewable energy generation is 1.58 billion kWh, + 197.9% compared with the same period last year; and thermal power generation is 2.62 billion kWh, down 5.0% from the same period last year.
The reserve of the project is sufficient, and the installed scale has increased by nearly 4GW compared with the same period last year. By the end of September 2023, the company's total installed capacity 32.8GW, year-on-year increase in 3.9GW, including wind power installed 26.7GW, year-on-year increase in 1.1GW, photovoltaic installed 4.2GW, year-on-year increase in 2.9GW. 2023H1, the company signed a new development agreement 29.34GW, an increase of 77.94% compared with the same period last year, including wind power 15.32GW, photovoltaic 14.02GW, and are located in areas with good resources; accumulated development indicators 4.01GW, in which the development indicators 3.07GW (wind power 1.58GW, photovoltaic 1.49GW) are obtained through competitive pricing. We believe that the company has sufficient project reserves and fast construction speed, and can successfully complete the "14th five-year Plan" 30GW new energy installation plan.
CCER is officially restarted, which is expected to thicken environmental revenue. On October 19, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the measures for the Management of Trading for Voluntary reduction of greenhouse Gas emissions (for trial implementation), and CCER was restarted six years later. From October 24 to 25, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a notice on four CCER methodologies, defining afforestation carbon sequestration, grid-connected photothermal power generation, grid-connected offshore wind power generation and mangrove construction as the first batch of methodologies. The company documented the country's first CCER project in 2014 and leads the country in market transactions; we believe that the restart of CCER is expected to bring additional environmental benefits to the company.
Profit forecast and investment advice: we expect the company's operating income from 2023 to 2025 to be 41.867 billion yuan, 45.887 billion yuan and 50.51 billion yuan respectively, with a growth rate of 5.0%, 9.6% and 10.1% respectively, and its net profit will be 7.395 billion yuan, 8.946 billion yuan and 106.99 yuan respectively. The growth rate is 44.7%, 21.0% and 19.6% respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: scenery construction is not as expected; electricity price fluctuation risk; policy risk.