Xintian Green Energy released its 2023 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters, the company's revenue was 13.124 billion yuan, up 0.58% year on year.
Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1,506 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.54%. Among them, net profit attributable to shareholders of companies in the third quarter was 68 million yuan, up 36.9% year on year. The basic earnings per share for the first three quarters were RMB 0.35, which is generally in line with our expectations.
The country's wind conditions were poor in the third quarter, and the company's wind power generation volume declined only slightly year-on-year. Q3 The average number of hours that wind power equipment can be used nationwide was 428h, down from 462h in the same period last year. Despite poor national conditions in the third quarter, in the first three quarters of 2023, power plants controlled by the company achieved a power generation capacity of 10.173 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 1.32% over the previous year. Among them, the Q3 generation volume decreased by only 0.83% in the single quarter. We believe this is mainly due to the fact that most of the company's projects are concentrated in the Sanbei region, better wind conditions, and the implementation of the company's new construction projects, contributing increased electricity. The company is actively promoting the development and construction of wind power projects. A number of onshore wind power and offshore wind power projects in Hebei Province are under construction, and the company's 500,000 kilowatt fresh air storage project, which is managed by the parent company, is also expected to be injected into listed companies in the future. In the long run, project location advantages and excellent operating efficiency can help the company's wind power sector performance grow steadily.
The natural gas business is on a recovery trend. The company's total gas transmission volume in the first three quarters of 2023 is 3,289 million meters? The year-on-year increase of 3.78%, reversing the downward trend in the first half of the year, was mainly due to the company's acquisition of a downstream wholesaler, which led to a sharp increase of 31.05% in downstream retail volume in Q3. The company attaches importance to downstream market development, and the number of industrial users is rising steadily. While the company's overall gross gas sales margin remains stable, a steady recovery in gas sales is expected to enhance the profitability of the company's natural gas business.
The LNG terminal has entered the trial operation stage and is expected to continue to contribute to increased performance in the future. In June, the first phase of the Tangshan LNG terminal project with a turnover capacity of 5 million tons/year was put into operation. It is currently in trial operation and is expected to be officially upgraded by the end of the year. Against the backdrop of a decline in the international gas price center, China's natural gas imports in January-September increased 8.4% year on year, and the popularity of imported LNG continued to pick up. Currently, the company has signed a long-term agreement of 1 million tons/year with Qatar Energy and is actively cooperating with third parties, including Hong Kong and China Smart Energy. The utilization rate of receiving stations is expected to continue to increase. We expect the LNG terminal to be profitable next year, increasing the company's performance over the long term. As the second phase of the LNG receiving station project continues to advance and the construction of the internal pipeline network in Hebei Province is further improved, the company can consolidate its dominant position in natural gas supply in North China.
Maintain a “buy” rating. On October 19, the first batch of 50 billion renewable energy subsidies of this year was issued, of which the wind power subsidy amount was 22,514 billion yuan, an increase of 14% over the previous year. Considering that more than 90% of the company's projects were included in the list of the first batch of subsidy verification compliance projects last year, the subsidy payments are expected to continue to be recovered. As of September 30, the company's cash on hand was 4.118 billion yuan. The abundant cash flow has laid a solid foundation for the investment and construction of the company's rich reserve projects. We maintain the company's net profit forecasts for 2023-2025 at 24.77, 30.53, and 3.608 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.55, 0.68, and 0.80 yuan/share, respectively.
Under current stock prices, PE corresponding to 2023-2025 is 4.6, 3.8, and 3.2 times, respectively. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Natural gas sales fell short of expectations, and the scale of additional grid-connected installations fell short of expectations.