Overview of events
The company released the third quarterly report of 2023: the company realized income of 922 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, an increase of 20% over the same period last year, a net profit of 233 million yuan, a 25% increase over the same period last year, and a deduction of 195 million yuan in non-net profit, an increase of 6.68% over the same period last year.
Analysis and judgment:
The performance exceeded market expectations, and the performance increment company 23Q3 began to contribute 370 million yuan in revenue in a single quarter, an increase of 42% over the same period last year. We judged that it was mainly due to the gradual increase in the performance of ① 's first imitated dextroprogesterone preparation in 23Q3; ② anti-tumor, female health and other API varieties showed a continuous release. The company's 23Q3 gross profit margin is 64.37%, which is significantly higher than 54.90% of 23Q2 and 46.45% of 22Q3. We judge that it mainly benefits from the increase in the proportion of high gross profit business income. Looking forward to the future, products such as dextroprogesterone, abitron, dexamethasone, fluticasone and eplenone continue to show growth. superimposed new products (buvacetam, bepidol acid, Enzalutamide, Noxinazone sodium, Enzalutamide, dotiravir sodium, Smeagralutide, etc.) and dextroprogesterone and other preparations have contributed to the performance increment one after another. we judge that it will continue to grow rapidly in the next 3 to 5 years.
Layout of new businesses such as peptides and oligonucleotides to empower medium-and long-term business growth
In 2021, the company realized new business layout such as polypeptides and oligonucleotides through acquisition and self-built model, in which polypeptide business main body Zhuo Peptide Pharmaceutical 23H1 realized income of 10.0789 million yuan and Oligonucleotide business main body Aurite Biological 23H1 realized income of 2.0785 million yuan. At present, the construction of the company's Simigrup API fermentation workshop has been completed, and the synthesis workshop is under construction. It is expected that after completion of the construction, the company will be able to produce 300 kg API per year.
The company has formed the R & D, production and global registration capacity of oligonucleotide APIs from milligram level to 100g level, and is developing a number of oligonucleotide API products to contribute to the company's future performance.
Performance forecast and investment advice
The company continues to dig deep into the field of characteristic APIs, looking forward to the continuous release of stock varieties (didrone, abituron, fluticasone, eplenone, etc.) and potential blockbuster products (buvacetam, enzaluamide, budesonide, norcinazone sodium, dotillavir sodium and simigrutide, etc.) in the next few years As well as the contribution increment and strategic layout of small nucleic acid polypeptide business under the integration of superimposed preparation, the small nucleic acid polypeptide business adds impetus to the medium-and long-term performance growth, and we judge that the company will continue to show rapid growth in the next few years.
Taking into account the fluctuation of product performance, adjust the pre-profit forecast, that is, we forecast that the operating income for 2023-2025 will be adjusted from 1.241 million yuan to 1.654 billion yuan, and the corresponding EPS will be adjusted from 0.63 shock 0.82 yuan to 0.69 cusp 1.33 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 23.91 yuan per share on October 30, 2023, and PE will be times as much as 35-25-18. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint
The promotion of the product line under study is not as expected; the sales of dextroprogesterone preparation are lower than expected; exchange rate fluctuations and geopolitics cause uncertainty to the company's business; the future development of the strategic layout of small nucleic acid and polypeptide business has uncertain risks.