The net profit of homecoming in the first three quarters of 2023 increased by 33% compared with the same period last year. In the first three quarters of 2023, Admiralty achieved operating income of 646 million yuan, + 25% of the same period last year, and net profit of 62 million yuan, + 33% of the same period last year. In a single quarter, the company achieved operating income of 240 million yuan in the third quarter of 2023, + 25% year-on-year, + 15% month-on-month, and home net profit of 21 million yuan, + 4% year-on-year and-9% month-on-month. The gross profit margin of the company's low wind resistance wheel hubcap turns negative to positive with volume production, and 23Q1 excluding freight affects the gross profit margin of 19.59%, and begins to contribute profits.
The global share of hub caps is 14%, and the industry continues to grow: the company's core business is low wind resistance wheel hubcaps, traditional central caps, conventional large-size hubcaps and hub inserts (with traditional central caps and conventional large-size hubcaps). In 22 years, the company sold 46.96 million wheel caps, with a global market share of about 14% based on 4 per car. The industry has remarkable growth: 1) the low wind resistance wheel hubcap increases the range of new energy vehicles by nearly 5%, and the permeability continues to increase; 2) hub inserts provide personalized decoration / reduce wind resistance, and the configuration rate continues to increase.
The low wind resistance wheel hubcap starts with the new energy vehicle. Low wind resistance wheel hubcap for new energy vehicles, increase the coverage area to reduce wind resistance, and increase the range by nearly 5%. Model 3, Tang EV and other products have been configured one after another, and it is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will increase from 11% in 22 years to 43% in 25 years. The market size of this product is 1.1 billion yuan in 25 years. It is assumed that the long-term sales space of new energy vehicles is 20 million, and the market size of the products is 2.8 billion yuan. The company's products are matched with overseas well-known new energy car companies and customers such as shanghai passenger cars. In 20-22, the company sold 131,51.4m sets, with an income of 87.15 million yuan and a market share of 66% in 22 years.
The sales of hub insert products increase with the personalized demand. The hub insert has 5-7 wheels per wheel for fuel vehicles (personalized decoration) and new energy vehicles (reducing wind resistance). The market size is expected to be 2 billion yuan in 25 years (900 million yuan in 22 years). The average unit price of the company's inserts is about 10 yuan in 22 years, supporting BYD and other rapid volume. In 20-22, it sells 150, 557, 000 and 12.75 million pieces. According to the calculation of 6 single wheels, the proportion of traditional center covers or conventional large-size hub covers is 1%, 2%, 5%, and there is plenty of room for improvement.
Plan to build production projects in Guangzhou and Jiangsu. The company has built two factories in Guangzhou and Qingyuan. With saturated orders, the company plans to issue public convertible bonds to raise 350 million yuan for Guangzhou lightweight engineering plastic parts to expand production, adding 81 million hub inserts, 4.8 million low wind resistance wheel hubcaps, and 3000 hub center covers with an annual production capacity of 100 million pieces. The construction period is 2 years, and 30%, 90%, 100%, 100%, 90%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 90%, 100%, 100%, 90%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 90%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 90%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 100, 000, 100, 000, 100, 000, 100, 000, 100, 000, 100, 000, 100, 000, 100, 000, 100, At the same time, it is planned to invest more than 300 million yuan in the construction of Jiangsu internal and external decoration and automobile lightweight materials production project, with a planned land of 50 mu.
Risk hint: customer expansion is not as expected and capacity expansion is not as fast as expected.
Investment advice: maintain profit forecasts and maintain "buy" ratings. The company's low wind resistance wheel hubcap volume; DAG enhanced overseas customer acquisition capacity; continued cost reduction and efficiency profit margin improvement, optimistic about the company's customer expansion and product structure change profit upward, maintain the profit forecast, 23-25 net profit is expected to be 0.94 pound 1.35 billion PE, given in 2024 25-30 times PE, the corresponding valuation range of 32-38 yuan.