Qingdao Port (601298) 2023 three-quarter report review: 23Q3 performance increased 8% year on year, and the main business grew steadily

華創證券 · Oct 30, 2023 18:36

公司发布2023 年三季报：1）2023Q1-3 实现营收136.59 亿元，同比下滑7.72%；实现归母净利润37.88 亿元，同比增长9.83%；实现扣非净利润37.09 亿元，同比增长11.74%。实现毛利率36.02%，同比增长3.84pct；实现归母净利率27.74%，同比增长4.43pct。2）分季度看：23Q3 公司实现营收45.01 亿元，同比下滑7.29%；实现归母净利润12.25 亿元，同比增长7.76%；实现毛利率34.30%，同比增长1.38pct；实现归母净利率27.21%，同比增长3.73pct。

2023 年货物、集装箱吞吐量逐季改善。2023 年前三季度，公司分公司、子公司、合营及联营公司合计完成货物吞吐量5.04 亿吨，同比增长5.7%；完成集装箱吞吐量2234 万标准箱，同比增长11.6%。其中，公司23Q3 实现货物吞吐量1.72 亿吨，同比增长6.22%；实现集装箱吞吐量782 万标准箱，同比增长11.71%。环比看，公司货物吞吐量23Q1 环比22Q4 增长7.44%，23Q2 环比23Q1 增长6.53%，23Q3 环比23Q2 增长0.31%；公司集装箱吞吐量23Q1 环比22Q4 增长1.03%，23Q2 环比23Q1 增长11.05%，23Q3 环比23Q2 增长2.36%。

投资收益稳健增长。公司投资收益主要由合营企业QQCT、青岛实华贡献，二者业绩分别基于集装箱吞吐量、液体散货吞吐量，并受益于全港的协同经营。

2023 年前三季度，公司实现投资收益11.91 亿元，同比增长15.32%。其中，公司23Q3 实现投资收益4.09 亿元，同比增长17.41%。环比看，23Q2 环比23Q1 增长4.75%，23Q3 环比23Q2 增长2.12%。

区域整合红利有望兑现，优质港口龙头具备重塑价值机遇。目前公司尚在筹划与日照港、烟台港的重大资产重组，计划整合日照港、烟台港与液体散货、干散货相关的部分码头资产，预计青岛港、日照港、烟台港之间的同业竞争将随着省内协同加深而逐步消解。随着同业竞争弱化，青岛港的枢纽港地位预计进一步突出，长期成长性可期。

投资建议：1）盈利预测：因公司资产重组拟发行股本未定，暂维持盈利预测，即我们预计公司2023-25 年实现归母净利分别为50.8、56.7、63.5 亿元，同比分别增长12.2%、11.6%、12.1%，对应EPS 分别为0.78、0.87 及0.98 元，PE分别为8、7、6 倍。2）目标价：我们维持在行业深度中提出的估值方式，即优质港口龙头估值应向高速公路靠拢，维持给予公司2023 年预计净资产1.5倍PB，对应目标价9.4 元，预计较现价52%空间，维持“推荐”评级。

风险提示：经济出现下滑、腹地经济明显波动。

The company released its quarterly report for 2023: 1) 2023Q1-3 realized revenue of 13.659 billion yuan, down 7.72% from the same period last year; realized net profit of 3.788 billion yuan, up 9.83% from the same period last year; and deducted 3.709 billion yuan from non-net profit, an increase of 11.74% over the same period last year. The gross profit margin was 36.02%, an increase of 3.84pct over the same period last year, and the net return rate was 27.74%, an increase of 4.43pct over the same period last year. 2) quarter by quarter: 23Q3 achieved revenue of 4.501 billion yuan, down 7.29% from the same period last year; realized net profit of 1.225 billion yuan, up 7.76% from the same period last year; realized gross profit margin of 34.30%, up 1.38 pct over the same period last year; and realized net profit rate of 27.21%, an increase of 3.73pct over the same period last year.

The throughput of cargo and containers will improve quarter by quarter in 2023. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's subsidiaries, subsidiaries, joint ventures and associated companies totaled 504 million tons of cargo, an increase of 5.7 percent over the same period last year, and container throughput of 22.34 million TEUs, an increase of 11.6 percent over the same period last year. Among them, the company's 23Q3 achieved cargo throughput of 172 million tons, an increase of 6.22% over the same period last year, and container throughput of 7.82 million TEUs, an increase of 11.71% over the same period last year. On a month-on-month basis, the company's cargo throughput 23Q1 increased by 7.44% compared to 22Q4 and 2.36% over 23Q1 by 6.53% and 0.31% over 23Q2, and the container throughput of 23Q1 increased by 1.03% compared with 22Q4 and 11.05% compared with 23Q1.

Investment income increased steadily. The investment income of the company is mainly contributed by joint venture QQCT and Qingdao Shihua, whose performance is based on container throughput and liquid bulk throughput respectively, and benefits from the coordinated operation of the whole port.

In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved an investment income of 1.191 billion yuan, an increase of 15.32% over the same period last year. Among them, the company's 23Q3 achieved an investment income of 409 million yuan, an increase of 17.41 percent over the same period last year. On a month-on-month basis, 23Q2 increased by 4.75% over 23Q1 and 2.12% over 23Q2.

The regional integration dividend is expected to be realized, and the high-quality port leader has the opportunity to reshape the value. At present, the company is still planning a major asset reorganization with Rizhao Port and Yantai Port, and plans to integrate some of the terminal assets related to liquid bulk cargo and dry bulk cargo in Rizhao Port and Yantai Port. It is expected that the competition among Qingdao Port, Rizhao Port and Yantai Port will gradually disappear with the deepening of coordination in the province. With the weakening of inter-industry competition, the status of Qingdao Port as a hub port is expected to be further prominent and its long-term growth can be expected.

Investment advice: 1) profit forecast: due to the undetermined share capital to be issued by the company's asset restructuring, we temporarily maintain the profit forecast, that is, we expect the company to achieve a return net profit of 50.8,56.7 and 6.35 billion yuan respectively in 2023-25, an increase of 12.2%, 11.6% and 12.1% respectively over the same period last year, the corresponding EPS is 0.78,0.87 and 0.98 yuan respectively, and the PE is 8, 7 and 6 times respectively. 2) Target price: we maintain the valuation method proposed in the depth of the industry, that is, the valuation of high-quality port leaders should be close to the highway, and the company should be given a net asset of 1.5 times PB in 2023, corresponding to the target price of 9.4 yuan, which is expected to be 52% higher than the current price, and maintain the "recommended" rating.

Risk hint: the economy is declining and the hinterland economy is obviously fluctuating.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

青岛港(601298)2023年三季报点评：23Q3业绩同比增长8% 主业稳健增长

Qingdao Port (601298) 2023 three-quarter report review: 23Q3 performance increased 8% year on year, and the main business grew steadily

Risk Disclaimer

Statement