Main points of investment
23Q3 revenue growth rate returned to positive, profit decline narrowed, profit level month-on-month repair 23Q1-Q3: revenue 69.526 billion yuan, year-on-year + 2%; return to the mother net profit 517 million yuan,-18% year-on-year; deducting non-return net profit 455 million yuan, year-on-year-23%.
23Q3: revenue 22.981 billion yuan, year-on-year + 5%; return net profit 198 million yuan, year-on-year-11%; deducting non-return net profit 159 million yuan, year-on-year-22%.
Profit side: 23Q3 gross margin 3.46% (year-on-year-0.31 ppp; month-on-month + 0.72pp), net margin 1.09% (year-on-year-0.07ppp; month-on-month + 0.3pp).
Expense side: 23Q3 sales / management expense rates are respectively year-on-year-0.16/-0.04pct.
The demand for high-end smartphones recovers steadily, and the anti-risk ability is stable.
Demand for smartphones has risen steadily as the economy recovers. According to IDC, 23Q2 China has a 23.1% market share of high-end mobile phones worth more than $600, bucking the trend compared with the same period in 22 years. Among them, 23H1 Apple Inc accounts for 67% of China's mobile phone market with a share of more than US $600, maintaining an absolute leading position.
Aishi is the largest service provider of Apple Inc brand in the domestic channel, and its brand Cool Digital operates more than 100 Apple Inc high-quality dealers in the core business district of first-to third-tier cities across the country. On September 15, 23, Cooking digital stores pre-sold the new generation of iPhone products, creating the best sales performance in history within an hour.
Q4 as a traditional peak season of mobile phone consumption, with the release of new products of mobile phone brands, superimposed "double 11", "double 12" and other big promoting nodes are coming, mobile phone sales are expected to hit bottom and rebound and continue to contribute to performance increment.
Improve the global sales network to help Glory expand overseas markets
The subsidiary Youyou Netcom is deeply engaged in 3C category supply chain management, has 7 + years of experience and ability to land overseas, and has the right of national agency to honor many countries and regions. to help glorify the realization of 0-1 market breakthroughs in Southeast Asia, South America, Central Asia and other overseas regions. Thanks to strong overseas performance, Glory has become one of the few 23Q3 brands with year-on-year sales growth, according to Counterpoint, a research firm.
Profit forecast and valuation
As a leading digital distribution and digital retail service provider in China, Estelle has significant advantages in sales network layout, product operation development, organizational efficiency improvement and digital update support. Affected by macroeconomic factors and the decline in shipments in the global smartphone market in the consumer electronics industry, the company superimposed the company's overseas layout cost input and lowered the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the annual revenue in 23-24-25 will be 961 / 1074 / 118 billion yuan, with an increase of 5.10%, 11.77% and 9.88%. The net profit of homing mother is 6.83%, 809 million yuan, and-6.46%, 10.08% and 7.52%, respectively. The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE of 13.86 X/12.59X/11.71 X, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: sales falling short of expectations, industrial policy changes and increased competition, etc.