Main points of investment
Excluding investment income, depreciation and other factors, we estimate that we still achieved a slight loss reduction in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter.
The company's Q3 realized operating cash flow of 279 million yuan, an increase of 39.6% over the same period last year and 49% month-on-month growth, and the cash flow situation improved.
The number of outpatients and inpatients increased month-on-month in the third quarter, and the number of beds remained high recently, and it is still expected to improve in the fourth quarter. In the Q3 quarter alone, although the income decreased by 16.83 million and 1.5% from the previous quarter, the number of outpatients and hospitalization of the central hospital and the high-tech hospital increased month-on-month in the Q3 quarter alone. The slight decrease in income from the previous quarter is mainly due to a relatively high proportion of mild patients in the third quarter, so the level of customer unit price is relatively low. In the near future, the beds in the central hospital remain at the high level of 3400-3500, and the high-tech hospitals are still operating at full capacity, so looking forward to the fourth quarter, the number of beds is still expected to maintain a record high climbing trend, and the proportion of critically ill patients will increase. Therefore, we believe that income growth and profit improvement will be achieved in the fourth quarter.
The statement of Shangluo Hospital brings one-time income, and we estimate that the operating profit side of Shangluo Hospital still reduces its loss in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter. The investment income of the company increased by about 120 million yuan in the Q3 quarter, mainly due to the one-time income from Shangluo Hospital. After deducting the influence of one-time income and other non-profit items, the company deducts the non-return profit in Q3-94.68 million yuan. The company deducts non-return profit-152 million yuan in the Q2 quarter, and we estimate that after considering the change in the caliber of depreciation statistics in the North Hospital District, the Q3 quarter still achieves a slight loss reduction compared with the previous quarter. In the case of a slight decrease in income from the previous month, the profit end and cash flow performed better.
Profit forecast and investment rating: taking into account the good operating momentum of the company and the impact of depreciation and amortization of the new courtyard in 2023, we maintain the projected net profit of-297 million yuan in 2023, the net profit of the company in 2024-2025 will be raised to 28727million yuan from 192pm to 546 million yuan, and the corresponding PE in 2024max 2025 will be 71x37x. Revenue from 2023-2025 is expected to be 45.06 million yuan for 2023-2025, corresponding to the current market value of 4.4cm 3.3pm 2.7X, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of bed climbing is less than expected, the risk of loss of core doctors, the risk of policy uncertainty, and so on.