The company disclosed the third quarterly report of 2023: revenue in the first three quarters of 2023 was 4.713 billion yuan (+ 52.85% compared with the same period last year), net profit was 211 million yuan (+ 62.48% compared with the same period last year), and non-return net profit was 189 million yuan (+ 79.37% over the same period last year). Among them, revenue in the third quarter was 1.893 billion yuan (year-on-year + 83.03%, month-on-quarter + 20.14%), net profit was 83 million yuan (year-on-year + 112.46%, month-on-month-17.96%), and non-return net profit was 82 million yuan (year-on-year + 151.11%, month-on-month + 1.60%).
The sharp increase in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year is mainly due to the increase in production.
Profitability is basically stable, and the asset-liability ratio has increased. In the first three quarters, the company's gross profit margin was 12.68%, an increase of 1.09 ppm over the same period last year; net profit was 4.48%, an increase of 0.05 ppm over the same period last year; and the expense rate was 12.26%, an increase of 1.50pp over the same period last year. In the third quarter alone, the company's gross profit margin was 12.81%, down 0.40 ppm from the previous month; net profit was 4.41%, down 2.05pp from the previous quarter. As of September 30, 2023, the company's asset-liability ratio was 69.53%, an increase of 12.09pp over the end of 2022 and 2.83pp over June 30, 2023.
The increase in the company's asset-liability ratio is mainly due to the use of part of its own funds to build new energy vehicle projects and recycled aluminum projects.
The company's product output has increased steadily, and the profit per ton has declined. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company produced 204000 tons of aluminum processing materials, an increase of about 60 percent over the same period last year, and 80,000 tons in the third quarter alone, an increase of 73 percent over the same period last year and 16 percent from the previous quarter. Overall, the company's aluminum processing products in the second quarter unit net profit of 1472 yuan / ton, the third quarter unit net profit of 1050 yuan / ton, the decline in unit net profit is mainly due to a slight decline in processing fees, superimposed new energy auto parts project phase 50, 000 tons project began trial production at the end of June, the third quarter is in the customer introduction cycle, affecting part of the profits.
Risk tips: the risk of large fluctuations in aluminum prices; the risk of a decline in gross profit margin caused by fierce market competition; and the risk of increasing the market share of alternatives such as composite frame, steel frame, buckle frame and so on.
Investment advice: downgrade earnings forecasts and maintain a "buy" rating. It is estimated that the company's operating income for 2023-2025 is 67.8721 million yuan (the original forecast is 102.28 billion yuan), with a year-on-year growth rate of 60.76%, 29.97%, 43.67%, and a year-on-year growth rate of 67.32%, 41.96% and 47.22%, respectively. The diluted EPS is 2.14 apiece 3.04 apiece 4.48 yuan, and the current share price corresponds to 15.6 Plus 11.0 Placement 7.5x. Taking into account the company's clear production capacity planning, strong supply capacity, good adhesion with downstream customers, with definite growth, maintain the "buy" rating.