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诺唯赞(688105):3Q利润扭亏 明年盈利有望继续改善

Novizan (688105): 3Q profit reversal, profit is expected to continue to improve next year

華泰證券 ·  Oct 30, 2023 14:06

3Q23 returns to its parent net profit to reverse its losses, and the performance inflection point has arrived.

9M23's revenue / return net profit / deduction non-net profit is 8.69 million yuan, compared with the same period last year, which is-62%, 110%, 120%, of which 3Q23 revenue / return net profit / deduction non-net profit 2.98%, 0.05 and-21 million yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The growth rate of performance is mainly due to the sharp decline in COVID-19 's income after the optimization of epidemic prevention and control, but the net profit of 3Q23 has turned from loss to profit. We are optimistic that the performance inflection point will come.

We estimate that the company's EPS for 23-25 years will be 0.03, 0.60, 0.83 yuan. Taking into account the company's comprehensive business layout, 3Q23 successfully reversed losses, and with the recovery of capital investment in the post-epidemic scientific research market, we are optimistic that 24-year regular business demand will be further released, and new life sciences business products have been gradually listed and generated revenue, or become a 24-year new revenue growth point, we give 24-year 60x PE (comparable company 24-year Wind consensus expectation 43x), corresponding to the target price of 35.72yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.

The rate of 3Q23 expenses increased significantly, and the gross profit margin decreased slightly compared with the same period last year.

The company's 9M23 sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate is 37.90%, 19.90%, 28.34%, 28.34%, 1.79%, 16.63%, 22.92, 12.04, 16.63, 34.34% 19.09%, 24.97%, 2.05%, 16.63% respectively, compared with the same period last year, because COVID-19 's related income decreased significantly compared with the same period last year. At the same time, the company's sales, management and R & D expenditure is relatively rigid, so the corresponding cost rate is significantly increased. The company's 9M23/3Q23 gross profit margin is 70.93% Universe 68.33%, year-on-year-1.91/-1.45pct. The company's parent net profit has reached an inflection point in 3Q23, and we are optimistic that the net interest rate will increase significantly at the beginning of 24 years.

The regular business of the three major business departments continues to recover.

We believe that the overall growth rate of 3Q23's conventional business is slow due to its high base income in the same period last year: 1) Life Sciences: we estimate overall steady growth, and new business increases rapidly; 2) in vitro diagnosis: we are optimistic that 4Q23 respiratory reagents will begin to increase; 3) Biomedicine: we estimate that the volume of business related to vaccine CRO and evaluation reagents has shrunk, and R & D reagents have grown steadily.

The fast-growing leader in China's life science service maintains a "buy" rating. We expect the 23-25 net profit to return to the home of 0.13 yuan, 238pm, 333 million yuan, compared with the same period last year,-98%, "1727%", 40%. The current stock price corresponds to the 23-25 PE for 959x/53x/38x, adjusting the target price to 35.72 yuan (the previous value is 30.85 yuan), maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk hint: new business growth is not up to expectations; overseas development expectations are low.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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