Event description
The company released a third-quarter report that 2023Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 1.476 billion yuan, year-on-year + 123.67%, return-to-mother net profit of 119 million yuan, year-on-year + 216.6%, deducted non-return net profit of 142 million yuan, year-on-year + 339.57%. Among them, 2023Q3 realized revenue of 623 million yuan, year-on-year + 250.19%, net profit of 36 million yuan, year-on-year + 1518.58%, non-return net profit of 63 million yuan, + 12917.58%.
Event comment
Actively promote the global business layout, performance and production capacity increased steadily. 2023Q3 revenue is + 34.61% month-on-month, mainly due to the cooperation of the company's Sino-US business team to speed up the implementation of projects in the North American market and actively explore the China-Europe market. at the same time, the production capacity and project delivery of factories in Mexico have increased. At present, the domestic market orders and winning bid amount has exceeded 200 million, the orders on hand are full, the downstream sales are booming, and the performance of Q4 is expected to continue to grow.
The performance of the profit side is bright, and the deduction of non-net interest rates has increased significantly. The company's net profit of homing and deducting non-homing increased significantly compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the high increase in income from the main business, as well as the low base caused by the disturbance of the market environment and the recession in the real estate business last year. 2023Q3 gross profit margin year-on-year + 3.81 pct/ month-on-year + 3.78 pct, net margin year-on-year + 4.58 pct/ month-on-year-2.01 pct, net interest rate month-on-month decline in Q3 non-recurrent profit and loss-26.3585 million yuan, deducting non-net margin year-on-year + 9.80pct/ month on year + 2.23 pct, still significantly increased. 2023Q1-Q3 gross margin year-on-year + 2.98 pct, deducting non-net profit margin + 4.77 pct year-on-year.
The cost side is well controlled, and the cost level is relatively high during the last year. The 2023Q1-Q3 sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate is respectively-0.96 pct compared with the same period last year. The operating cash flow of-284 million yuan is due to the fact that the progress of the project implementation has not reached the payback node during the reporting period.
We believe that at present, the orders downstream of the company are booming, the Chinese and Mexican teams continue to inject design and manufacturing capacity, and the advantages of international business synergy appear. Taking into account the project delivery cycle, the performance continues to be high and has strong certainty in the short term. In the medium and long term, as one of the top three automation integrators in North America, the company has sufficient experience in the project and is located at the core of production capacity construction in Mexico, which will fully benefit from the wave of capital expenditure brought about by the return of manufacturing in North America. At the same time, the company has reached a long-term strategic cooperation with international well-known warehousing and logistics customers. In the future, industrial automation business is expected to extend to the pan-manufacturing industry in the non-automotive sector, with broad room for growth.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company's operating income from 2023 to 2025 will be 19.95,29.97 and 4.045 billion yuan respectively, compared with the same period last year, the net profit of the company will be 2.11,3.47 and 490 million yuan respectively, and the year-on-year net profit will be 2.11,3.47 and 490 million yuan respectively. The corresponding PE valuation is 18.82x/11.44x/8.11x, and the "Buy" rating will be maintained.
Risk Tips:
The North American automobile market is not as good as the expected risk; the risk of the introduction of new business areas is not as expected; the risk of insufficient capacity of talent; the risk of global management.