Core ideas:
The company disclosed three quarterly results for 23 years: 23Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 2.925 billion yuan, YoY+2.83%; gross profit of 28.1%, a year-on-year decline of 3.0 pct; net profit of 79.75 million yuan, YoY-4.66%; deducted non-return net profit of 54.03 million yuan, YoY-0.81%. Q3 achieved 965 million yuan in revenue in a single quarter, YoY-14.23%,QoQ-16.39%. Gross profit margin was 27.98%, down 2.3pct from the same period last year, while 0.9pct was higher than the previous month. The return net profit is 24.19 million yuan, YoY-38.93%,QoQ-17.81%; deducts the non-return net profit is 20.11 million yuan, YoY-32.92%,QoQ+3.82%.
The literature travel continues the sustained recovery momentum, the venture capital causes certain disturbance. From the perspective of various businesses: (1) Culture and Tourism: the recovery trend continued during the summer tourism season, and the National Day performance further exceeded expectations. According to the official account of Radio and TV Media, both the stock and incremental projects of the company performed well in the summer. The overall stock project is steadily rising, Changsha window of the World summer revenue of nearly 80 million yuan, a new high; St. Jefes Hotel summer revenue is basically flat, maintaining steady development. With the rapid maturity of the incremental project, Wanlou Youth Wharf has made a profit in the summer; the summer income of Quzi Cultural Park increased by 49.25% compared with the same period last year. National Day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the company's many scenic spots unified planning "China Carnival" theme activities to form a linkage, a total of more than 600000 tourists reached a record high, culture and tourism revenue increased significantly, laying a good start for Q4. (2) in other businesses, Aiko Cyber, Wande shares, Shengbang Security and Haike Xinyuan, which participated in Dachen Caizhi Q3, have been listed one after another, but it is expected that the overall venture capital income will still be affected by investment withdrawal. The recovery of the advertising market is expected to lead to a further narrowing of advertising losses.
Profit forecast and investment advice: Q3 cultural travel business to maintain a strong recovery, we expect advertising and game business to advance in an orderly manner, performance disturbed by the venture capital business. We estimate that the company's revenue for 23-25 years will be 4.319 billion yuan, 5.004 billion yuan and 5.62 billion yuan respectively, and the return net profit will be 218 million yuan, 387 million yuan and 502 million yuan respectively. Taking into account the company's resource advantages and new business development space, we will give the company a 24-year 25x PE with a reasonable total value of 9.7 billion yuan and a "buy" rating of 6.82 yuan per share.
Risk tips: the landing of the cultural travel project is not as expected, the venture capital business is not as expected, the supervision is stricter, and so on.