23Q3 income / homing net profit is 9.6% year-on-year, maintaining the "Buy" company's quarterly report for 23 years: 9M23 income / homing net profit 1.86 billion yuan, year-on-year + 9.5% Universe 10.7% Act23Q3 is 630,000,000 yuan, year-on-year + 12.0% Universe 9.6%, revenue and earnings continue to grow steadily. In October, the company announced that it had signed 590 million orders (23H1 won the bid). The accelerated release of on-hand and newly signed orders is expected to lead to the growth of the company's performance. Taking into account the impairment and the increase in expense rate, the company's 23-25 year return net profit forecast is 4.5 CAGR+23.6%, which is comparable to the company's 23-year Wind consensus expected average 0.76xPEG. We believe that the company's rail transit design industry has higher barriers and better pattern. And the stock transformation is expected to bring new growth space, but considering the company's short-term cash flow pressure, give 23-year 0.76xPEG, target price 20.12 yuan, maintain "buy".
23Q3 gross profit margin continues to improve compared with the same period last year, looking forward to the growth of rail transit energy conservation and environmental protection business. 23Q3's revenue is 630 million yuan, + 12.0% compared with the same period last year, maintaining steady growth. 9M23's gross profit margin is 36.4%, year-on-year + 2.4pctscape 23Q3 gross profit margin is 30.6%, same / month + 1.3/-12.4pct, month-on-month decline is expected to be mainly affected by seasonal fluctuations and contract confirmation progress, but still maintain the growth trend compared with the same period last year.
In order to realize the industrial promotion of relevant energy-saving and environmental protection technologies and increase the layout of new business in the energy field, the company newly established Guangzhou Kehui Energy Co., Ltd. this year, the company has won the bid for the pilot application of contract energy management mode project for the environmental control system of Guangzhou Line 3 and 5. We expect that Q4 will begin to contribute revenue to the company this year, and rail transit energy conservation and environmental protection business is expected to become an important growth point of the company in the future.
The financial expense rate is higher than the same period last year, and the net operating cash flow is still under pressure.
The period expense rate of 9M23 company is 14.4%, year-on-year + 1.2pct, in which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate is 2.6%, 7.1%, 5.1% and 0.3%, respectively, year-on-year + 0.4/-0.3/+0.4/+0.7pct. The financial expense rate increases due to the decrease of interest income and the increase of bank loan interest. 9M23's parent net interest rate is 15.4%, year-on-year + 0.2pctten Q3 return net interest rate is 11.5%, same / month-0.3/-6.5pct, year-on-year decline is mainly due to increased credit impairment losses. At the end of 23Q3, the company's asset-liability ratio / interest-bearing debt ratio was 53.9% and 6.4%, year-on-year + 0.4/+5.6pct, mainly due to an increase in short-term borrowing. 9M23 operating net cash flow-650 million yuan, year-on-year-280 million yuan; 23Q3 is-50 million yuan, year-on-year-90 million yuan, collection pressure is still there.
With the rapid growth of transportation investment in Guangdong Province, the urban renewal of Guangzhou continues to advance, according to the Guangdong Provincial Department of Transportation, 9M23 Guangdong Province completed transportation investment of 219.1 billion yuan, + 8.5% year-on-year, accelerating the construction of the Dawan area on the track. The Guangzhou Urban Renewal Special Plan (2021-2035) and the Guangzhou Urban Village Reconstruction Special Plan (2021-2035) were examined and approved in October. At the same time, the draft of Environmental impact Assessment of the New Guangzhou Railway Hub Guangzhou East Station to Xintang Station is announced, and Guangzhou urban renewal is expected to continue. Guangzhou Metro Group, the company's controlling shareholder, is one of the first seven municipal "land-making" subjects. As the core design subsidiary of Guangzhou Metro Group, the company is expected to deeply participate in Guangzhou rail transit renovation and urban renewal in the future.
Risk hint: the progress of the project is not as expected; the rail transit construction is not as expected; the stock transformation is not as expected.