Events:
On October 27, 2023, the company released its third quarterly report of 2023. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company realized operating income of 1.011 billion yuan, down 3.40% from the same period last year; realized return net profit of 90 million yuan, down 23.52% from the same period last year; realized non-return net profit of 79 million yuan, down 28.74% from the same period last year; and realized basic earnings per share of 0.23 yuan, down 23.85% from the same period last year.
The decline in revenue mainly comes from the rail transit non-connector category, and Q4 and next year's performance is expected to reverse:
In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 1.011 billion yuan, down 3.40% from the same period last year, of which Q3 achieved operating income of 332 million yuan in the single quarter, down 9.75% from the same period last year and 7.76% from the previous quarter. According to the company's performance exchange meeting, the decline in revenue in the first three quarters mainly comes from the rail transit business, while the new energy business is still on the rise. This year, individual projects in the rail transit non-connector category have been in a state of suspension of delivery, but non-connector category orders have an increasing trend, and the declining state is expected to improve gradually. New energy vehicle business, the core customer base is stable, new model delivery will be concentrated in the fourth quarter, charging gun business orders increased significantly in the near future. With the gradual repair of rail transit business and the continued growth of new energy vehicle business, we are optimistic about the company's Q4 and next year's performance reversal.
Share payments, period fees and changes in income structure affect profitability:
In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 30.30%, down 0.71pct from the same period last year, and a net profit rate of 8.70%, down 2.59pct from the same period last year. Among them, Q3 single-quarter gross profit margin was 30.15%, year-on-year growth of 0.64pct, month-on-month decline of 2.86pct, net profit rate of 6.46%, year-on-year decline of 3.10pct, month-on-month decline of 2.68pct. The short-term decline in the company's profitability is mainly due to: (1) the share payment fees for equity incentives last year occurred 11.35 million in the first three quarters of this year; (2) the company's sales expenses and R & D expenses increased to a certain extent in the first three quarters. Among them, the R & D expenditure reached 90 million yuan, an increase of 18.05% over the same period last year; (3) the company's income structure changed, and the proportion of the high gross profit rate rail business decreased.
The official release of liquid cooling system / high-power charging gun products has formed a market first-mover advantage:
At present, the global new energy vehicle industry is in a stage of rapid growth, which brings huge market demand for charging facilities. The company holds the core technology of high-power liquid-cooled charging gun, and has its own intellectual property rights; it can charge cars with a maximum current of 600A and a rated voltage of 1000V. On July 21, 2023, the company officially released liquid cooling system / high-power charging gun products. The heads of more than 60 Yonggui technology upstream and downstream industrial chain enterprises and partners, such as Shell ****'an Tiantai, TUV Rhine, SAIC Group, Zhejiang Polar Krypton, Selis Automobile and so on, attended the conference. At the press conference site, the company signed strategic cooperation with Shell China and Xi'an Tiantai respectively, actively opening a new chapter in deepening cooperation. At present, the company's liquid-cooled charging gun products have taken the lead in promoting and applying in the domestic market, providing batch products for some well-known domestic customers, which has formed a market first-mover advantage. We continue to be optimistic about the development of the company's liquid-cooled charging gun business.
Investment advice:
The company is a leading enterprise in the domestic rail connection connector industry. We estimate that in 2025, the company will achieve an operating income of 1.548, 20.76, 2.835 billion yuan in 2025, an increase of 2.5 percent, 34.1 percent, 36.5 percent, and a net profit of 1.47 percent, 2.19 million, and an increase of-4.7 percent, 48.9 percent, 38.1 percent, corresponding to EPS 0.38, 0.57, 0.79 yuan. We give the company 40 times PE in 2024, corresponding to the target price of 22.80 yuan, and maintain the "buy-A" investment rating.
Risk tips: raw material prices rise faster than expected; sales of new energy vehicles fall short of expectations; liquid-cooled overcharge market promotion progress is not as expected; rail transit industry prosperity is not as expected; calculation assumptions are less than expected risk.