Core ideas:
The decline exceeded investors' expectations. On the other hand, taking into account the concern about the month-on-month rise in loan levels, 19BP may be the implementation of new rules on the classification of financial assets on July 1, with an one-time jump in risk indicators.
The net interest margin rebounded from the previous month. The company's 23Q1-3 estimated net interest margin of 1.55%, rebounding 1BP from 23H1, narrowing 26BP compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the downward return on assets. From a marginal point of view, Q3 asset-end returns rebounded, with measured asset-side yields rising 4BP to 3.85 per cent month-on-month.
The scale of Q3 interest-bearing assets decreased by 156.3 billion yuan month-on-month, resulting in a 0.1% decrease in the growth of interest-bearing assets at the end of September compared with the beginning of the year. Q3 is mainly due to a sharp decrease in central bank deposits and total loans, which decreased by 63.9 billion yuan and 56 billion yuan respectively. The cost rate of interest-bearing liabilities rose 2BP to 2.29% month-on-month. The increase in the cost of Q3 debt is greater than that of Q2. The scale of Q3 interest-bearing liabilities decreased by 133.5 billion yuan from the previous month, mainly due to a decrease of 164.7 billion yuan in bond issuance (including 101.3 billion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit) and 40.6 billion yuan in deposits; but it should be noted that the decrease in Q3 deposits was mainly due to a decrease of 64.2 billion yuan in demand deposits (including 26.6 billion yuan in corporate demand deposits and 37.6 billion yuan in individual demand deposits), and the proportion of demand deposits decreased to 43.2%.
The defect rate basically remained stable, and the level of attention rate increased. At the end of September, the non-performing loan ratio was 1.52%, up 3BP from the previous month; focusing on the loan ratio of 2.35%, up 19BP from the previous month. 23Q1-3 estimates that the net rate of bad production is 1.30%, a decrease of 35BP compared with the same period last year. At the end of September, the provision coverage rate was 216%, which was lower than that at the end of June by 2.4PCT. At the end of September, the core tier one capital adequacy ratio was 13.39%, down 0.29PCT from a year earlier and rising 0.19PCT from a month earlier.
Profit forecast and investment advice: tamp risk management, stock risk continues to clear. It is estimated that the company's 24-year homing net profit growth rate will be-30.6%, 3.1%, 1.03 and 21.84 yuan per share, respectively, and the closing price of A shares will correspond to the 24-year PB 0.3X/0.3X of 23xue and 6.8X/6.6X of 24-year PE, respectively. Give the company 0.4 times PB for 24 years, with a reasonable value of 8.74 yuan per share, and a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: (1) the macroeconomic decline is higher than expected, and the asset quality deteriorates significantly. (2) the recovery of consumption is not as expected, and the fixed deposit is serious. (3) the market interest rate goes up and the trading books lose money.