The company released three quarterly results: revenue in the first three quarters was 11.93 billion yuan,-12.98% compared with the same period last year, and net profit was-332 million yuan,-134.40% compared with the same period last year. 23Q3 realized revenue of 3.8 billion yuan,-33.87% year-on-year and-2.76% month-on-month, and realized a net profit of 76.8 million yuan,-80.66% compared with the same period last year.
The company suffered a large loss in the first half of this year, but successfully reversed its losses in the third quarter. After entering the third quarter, the price of domestic petroleum coke rebounded, the price of pre-baked anode also stopped falling and stabilized, the impact of inventory price loss will be gradually eliminated, and the company's pre-baked anode unit profit will return to the normal level.
Production and sales of pre-baked anodes: 23H1's pre-baked anode can maintain full-load operation, with a self-produced output of 1.4559 million tons, + 10.02% year-on-year; sales volume of 1.4209 million tons, + 12.28% year-on-year, including export sales of 294800 tons, year-on-year-11.76%, and domestic sales of 1.1261 million tons, + 20.90% year-on-year. It is expected that the company's pre-baked anode production capacity in the third quarter is still in a state of full production and full sales.
Steady progress has been made in the new production capacity of pre-baked anodes: so far, Longxi Suotong 300000 tons of pre-baked anodes project, Hubei Zhijiang 1 million tons of calcined coke project, Shandong innovation 340000 tons of prebaked anodes and 300000 tons of calcined coke projects are in steady progress. It is estimated that the company's total production capacity is expected to reach 5 million tons in 2025. In addition, the company officially opened the road of overseas layout in the first half of this year, signing a "Memorandum of understanding on Investment" with UAE Global Aluminum EGA to build a joint venture to build a pre-baked anode production base in the UAE.
Lithium cathode products begin to contribute profits: at present, the company has two production bases in the field of lithium electrode:
1) Wulanchabu, Inner Mongolia, the original production capacity of 15000 tons of lithium anode, and another 40,000 tons of new graphitization project was put into production in the first half of this year; 2) Jiayuguan, Gansu, the first phase of 50,000 tons one step 25000 tons graphitization process was completed and put into production in the first half of this year; to sum up, the company currently has a total of 15000 tons of integrated production capacity and 65000 tons of graphitization capacity. In the first half of this year, the company produced 12900 tons of lithium electrode products and sold 9400 tons, with a revenue of 149 million yuan and a gross profit margin of about 12.5%. At present, it is expected that the company's graphitized products basically maintain a break-even, with a net profit of about 1000-2000 yuan per ton of integrated products. Following up, with the gradual climbing of production capacity, there is still much room for improvement in gross profit margin.
Risk hint: the construction progress of the project is not up to expectations, and the production and sales volume of the project products are not up to expectations.
Investment advice: maintain a buy rating.
Slightly lower the company's profit forecast for 2023. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2023 to 2025 will be 156.32 million yuan (196.36 million yuan) respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of-19.4%, 25.6% and 42.8%, respectively. The homing net profit will be-0.93 million 12.02 billion yuan (the original forecast 1.03 million 12.02 million), and the year-on-year growth rate will be-110.3% 1387.3%, 35.8%. The diluted EPS is-0.17 pound 2.22 pound 3.02 yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponds to-103.7 pound 8.1 pound 5.9X. We believe that the company has achieved a very obvious competitive advantage in the field of pre-baked anodes, and is expected to seize the domestic strategic opportunity of "moving north aluminum to the south" to achieve rapid expansion of production capacity; the company's strategy extends the field of new carbon materials, and is expected to achieve a breakthrough and rapid expansion of the production capacity of artificial graphite anode materials by virtue of the procurement advantages and low-cost electricity price advantages in the field of petroleum coke, with great room for growth; maintain the "buy" rating.