Core ideas:

The company's performance is in line with expectations. According to the company's three-quarter report, the company achieved an operating income of 7.35 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2023, an increase of 10.07% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 585 million yuan, an increase of 28.55% over the same period last year. In the first three quarters of 2023, the operating income was 21.905 billion yuan, up 10.27% from the same period last year, and the net profit was 1.972 billion yuan, up 23.23% from the same period last year.

Profitability has improved steadily, and orders on hand have improved slightly compared with the previous month. 23Q3's gross profit margin was 31.92%, 10.63% higher than the same period last year, and 2.31 pct higher than the same period last year. The company's 2023Q3 contract debt is 3.286 billion yuan, as of 23Q2 contract debt is 3.131 billion yuan, in-hand order has an upward inflection point (23Q1 contract debt is 3.409 billion yuan).

The accounts receivable of 23Q3 Company was 13.584 billion yuan, an increase of 16.75% over the same period last year.

The capital expenditure of the coal industry continues to grow, and the prosperity of the industry remains high. According to Wind, the total amount of fixed asset investment in the coal mining and washing industry increased 9.4% year on year from January to September 2023. The amount of fixed asset investment completed in 2022 has reached the highest level since 2013, and there is still an increase in 2023 on the basis of last year's high base, indicating that the prosperity of the industry is strong. The monthly fixed asset investment in September 2023 reached 705 yuan, an increase of 3.1% over the same period last year and 55.9% higher than the previous month. Driven by the intelligence of coal mines, the proportion of equipment investment in this coal cycle is increasing, and the high economic cycle is expected to continue.

Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company in 23-25 will be 2.84 billion yuan respectively. Refer to the comparable company, give 2023 coal production business 7xPE, coal machinery and other business 12xPE, intelligent business 25xPE, corresponding to the reasonable value of 5.72 yuan per share, maintain the "buy" rating.

Risk hint. Domestic and foreign coal prices fluctuate sharply; downstream capital expenditure expansion is less than expected; industry competition intensifies; intelligent business expansion falls short of expectations.