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新坐标(603040):短期公司业绩承压 未来成长逻辑不变

New coordinates (603040): Short-term company performance is under pressure, future growth logic remains unchanged

西南證券 ·  Oct 28, 2023 00:00

Event: the company released its three-quarter report in 2023, with revenue of 420 million yuan, year-on-year + 19.3%, and net profit of 130 million yuan, + 20.1% compared with the same period last year. In the split quarter, Q3 realized revenue of 150 million yuan, year-on-year-1.8%, month-on-month + 6.4%, and home net profit of 40 million yuan,-12.0% and-10.2%, respectively.

Q3 revenue is growing steadily, and its core advantages empower downstream customers. Q3 company achieved revenue of 150 million yuan,-1.8% year-on-year, month-on-month + 6.4%. With the growth of downstream customer demand and the continued volume of orders, the company's revenue is expected to continue to grow. Over the years, the company has strengthened operation and management, optimized production and operation efficiency, and formed a relatively excellent ability to control cost and increase efficiency. On the one hand, under the background of intensified competition in the industry, the company is expected to win more high-quality orders by virtue of cost / technology advantages. On the other hand, the company can also empower downstream customers to provide customers with safe, reliable and cost-intensive products.

The company continues to expand R & D investment, profitability to maintain a high level. Q3 company's gross profit margin is 51.3%, year-on-year-0.9pp, month-on-month-3.1pp, which is expected to be mainly related to changes in business structure. Sales expenses: expected to be affected by the continuous expansion of customers, Q3 sales expense rate is 1.7%, year-on-year + 0.2pp, month-on-month ratio + 0.2pp. management expenses: Q3 management expense rate is 10.4%, year-on-year + 1.4pp, month-on-month-1.2pp R & D expenses: Q3 company invested 940 million yuan in R & D, + 28.7% year-on-year, and the R & D expenditure rate reached 6.2%, year-on-year + 1.5pp. The company's increased R & D efforts will help to promote the landing of projects under research and enhance the company's medium-and long-term competitiveness. Overall, Q3 company net interest rate is 28.2%, year-on-year-4.2pp, month-on-4.8pp. Huzhou factory has shown a significant growth trend in 23H1, and we expect that with the stabilization of the process and the continuous volume of relevant customers, the Huzhou factory is expected to turn around as soon as possible and achieve a positive contribution to the company's performance.

Business growth logic is clear, new energy has become an important growth point. 1) the company's forward-looking layout of overseas markets, with the increase in the proportion of overseas customers, overlay the company's continuous development of overseas customers, the future growth space is expected to open. 2) the company will increase the layout of the new energy field, continue to develop battery structures, thermal management and other related products, under the background of the gradual increase in the permeability of new energy vehicles, the company's related products are expected to be landed and the corresponding fixed point with strong technical support, and the new energy sector will become an important growth point of the company in the future.

Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the company's homing net profit in 2023-2025 is 1.9 million yuan 270 million yuan respectively, and the compound growth rate of homing net profit in 23-25 years is 31.7%, corresponding to the PE of 16-11-8, respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk tips: market competition risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, lower-than-expected customer sales risk, policy adjustment risk, geopolitical risk and so on.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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