Items:
According to the company's quarterly report for 2023, 2023Q3 achieved an operating income of 3.076 billion yuan, a year-on-year change of + 9.01%, and a net profit of 68 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of + 36.93%. As of 2023Q3, the operating income was 13.124 billion yuan, a year-on-year change of + 0.58%; the company realized a net profit of 1.506 billion yuan, a year-on-year change of-9.54%.
Comments:
The main business indicators are sound, promoting the steady growth of revenue. In terms of power generation business, by the time 2023Q3 and its subsidiaries completed 1017.26 megawatts of electricity generation, the year-on-year change was + 1.32%; the company's average feed-in electricity price (excluding tax) was 0.44 yuan per kilowatt-hour, with a year-on-year change of-1.24%. The slight decline in grid electricity price or due to the expansion of the proportion of electricity in market-oriented transactions, as of 2023Q3, the proportion of electricity in market-oriented transactions increased to 39.64%. In terms of gas business, the gas sales volume of 2023Q3 reached 2.829 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year change of + 1.84%, of which wholesale / retail / CNG/LNG gas sales reached 12.98 million cubic meters, respectively, with a year-on-year change of-5.76%, 3.67%, 14.56%, 2332.37%. The company's gas sales repaired or benefited from the improvement in downstream industrial demand in the third quarter. 2023Q3's gas sales reached 770 million cubic meters, a year-on-year change of + 30.28%, of which wholesale / retail / CNG/LNG gas sales reached 1.904.67 CNG/LNG 0.20 / 93 million cubic meters, respectively.
The reserve of the project is sufficient, and the commissioning of LNG project is expected to ensure the growth of the company. As of 2023H1, the group's cumulative holding capacity is 6.09GW, the cumulative approved unstarted project capacity is 1.86GW, and the wind power project reserve is sufficient. With the construction and landing of the project, the company's performance growth space may be further opened. In addition, in June 2023, the first-stage receiving station project of the Tangshan LNG project entered the trial operation stage, with the gradual release of production capacity, the company's growth is expected to be further consolidated.
The active layout of pumping and energy storage business is expected to shape the second growth curve. The company participates in the construction of Hebei Fengning pumped storage power station project, the total installed capacity of the power station design 3.6GW, divided into two phases of development, each phase capacity is 1.8GW. As of June 2023, Unit 1-10 of the project has been put into operation. The approved capacity electricity price of the first phase of the project is 547.07 yuan / kilowatt, and that of the second phase is 510.94 yuan / kilowatt. In addition, the group Baoding Laiyuan Huanghuatan 1.4GW pumped storage project has been reported to the National Energy Administration for examination and approval, and the company is actively investing in new energy storage projects inside and outside the province, which is expected to open up a second growth curve.
Investment suggestion: considering that the gas sales volume of the company has declined due to the influence of supply and demand factors, and the electricity price side is under pressure due to the expansion of the proportion of electricity in market-oriented transactions, we adjust the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the company will achieve a net profit of 100 million yuan in 24-30-35 (the previous value is 26-33-38 billion yuan) from 2023 to 2025, with year-on-year changes of + 4.2% "25.5%" 16.7% respectively. Due to the strong growth of the company's follow-up gas business, better Hebei wind resources and higher project texture, the comparable company gives the company gas and green power plate 19x PE, corresponding to a 23-year market capitalization of 45.4 billion yuan, which is 31% higher than the current market capitalization of 34.6 billion yuan, lowering the target price to 10.85 yuan and maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk hint: macroeconomic fluctuation risk, electricity price downward risk, project construction is not as expected.