电影行业稳健复苏带动影院业务恢复，3Q23 公司电影投资与发行业务或相对平淡。3Q23 电影行业稳健复苏，根据艺恩，3Q23 全国实现含服务费票房193.3 亿元，同比增长127.6%。影院：根据艺恩数据，公司3Q23 影投维度不含服务费票房为3.6 亿元，同比增长121.5%；市占率2.0%，同比微降0.1ppt。电影投资与发行：公司3Q23 主投电影《别叫我“赌神”》在映，根据猫眼专业版，截至10 月29 日，其累计票房为4,078 万元，且公司参投电影《志愿军：雄兵出击》于9 月28 日上映，根据猫眼专业版，截至10 月29 日，其累计票房为7.75 亿元，但我们认为该影片落入三季度收入或相对有限，3Q23 电影投资与发行业务整体可能相对平淡。3Q23 performance is higher than we expected.
The company announced 3Q23 results: revenue of 472 million yuan, an increase of 55.7% over the same period last year; return to the mother of 28.56 million yuan, turning losses into profits; deducting non-return net profit of 5.02 million yuan, turning losses into profits. The company's revenue exceeded our expectations, which we judged to be mainly due to the higher-than-expected revenue contribution from the cinema business, more controlled costs and less asset and credit losses than previously expected.
Trend of development
The sound recovery of the film industry has led to the recovery of cinema business, while 3Q23's film investment and distribution business may be relatively flat. The 3Q23 film industry has recovered steadily. According to Yien, 3Q23 grossed 19.33 billion yuan including service charges, an increase of 127.6 percent over the same period last year. Cinema: according to Yien data, the box office of the company's 3Q23 casting dimension excluding service charge was 360 million yuan, an increase of 121.5% over the same period last year; its market share was 2.0%, a slight decrease of 0.1 ppt compared with the same period last year. Film investment and distribution: the company's 3Q23 main casting film "Don't call me God of gamblers" is in theaters. According to Cat's Eye Professional version, as of October 29, its cumulative box office was 40.78 million yuan, and the company's participation in the film "volunteers: male soldiers" was released on September 28. According to Cat's Eye Professional Edition, its cumulative box office was 775 million yuan as of October 29, but we believe that the film's revenue in the third quarter may be relatively limited. 3Q23's film investment and distribution business as a whole may be relatively flat.
The gross profit margin increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and the operating expenses were properly controlled. 3Q23's gross profit margin increased to 32.2% year-on-year, which we think is mainly because cost control is more effective. The rate of sales expenses and management expenses of the company is 1.5% and 14.9% respectively, which decreases 10.5ppt and 7.2ppt respectively compared with the same period last year, and the cost investment is relatively controlled. In addition, the absolute value of the company's 3Q23 assets and credit impairment losses have significantly narrowed to 7.3 million yuan and 960000 yuan respectively. We believe that with the overall recovery of the film industry, the company's accounts receivable and inventory assets may continue to improve.
Pay attention to the box office performance of the movie "knife Tip", and the follow-up content is rich in reserve. Looking forward to the follow-up, the films to be released by the company include "knife Tip" (scheduled for release on November 24), "burst Point", "A Mai joining the Army", "Internship Love God", "A Dream of Red Mansions", "Legend" and so on. We will judge more content or release in 2024. In addition, the company said in the 1H23 performance report that the TV series "Shangganling" directed by Liu Weiqiang is also scheduled to be broadcast in 2023. We believe that the company's reserve project may gradually enter the fixed file and output cycle, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pace of subsequent reserve release.
Profit forecast and valuation
Taking into account the film box office expectations and proper cost control in the fourth quarter, we adjust the net profit in 2023 from a loss of 147 million yuan to a profit of 8.17 million yuan, leaving the net profit forecast unchanged in 2024. The current price corresponds to 19.7 times the 2024 PCME. Maintain an outperform industry rating and target price of 9.40 yuan, corresponding to 27 times 2024 Pmax E, with 36.4% upside space.
Risk
The investment and distribution of the film box office is not as expected, the risk of work censorship, the risk of aggravating market competition, the risk of public opinion of management and other personnel.
