Overview of events
The income / return net profit / deduction of non-return net profit of 23Q3 company is RMB 1.27 billion, an increase of 0.88%, 9.17% and 15.50%, respectively. Non-recurrent profit and loss are mainly investment income of 10 million yuan and government subsidy of 2 million yuan, deducting the beautiful growth of non-net profit.
23 in the first three quarters, the company's income / return net profit / deduction of non-return net profit / net operating cash flow was 19.25 yuan respectively, representing an increase of-2.9%, 5.7%, 5.2% and 8.2%, respectively.
Analysis and judgment:
Q3 growth mainly comes from direct sales and other income contributions. From the point of view of different channels, the direct sales / franchise / online / other income of 23Q3 company is 1.45 yuan respectively, an increase of 2.0% over the same period last year, which is 2.9% 11.7% 23 in the first three quarters, the company's direct marketing / joining / e-commerce / group buying / other income was 4.57, 5.18, 7.60, 0.77 million respectively, with a growth rate of-3.8%, 1.1%, 5.0, 5.0, 16.50, 9.4%, respectively.
The increase in the net interest rate of homing is slightly lower than the gross margin, mainly due to the decline in government subsidies and investment income. 23Q3's gross profit margin / homing net profit margin is 55.39%, 19.45%, up 1.54/1.47PCT from the same period last year. The 23Q3 sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates are 25.57% 4.26% 3.34% Maple 0.39%, respectively-0.21/1.32/0.74/0.08PCT compared with the same period last year. Other income / income decreased 0.59PCT, mainly due to reduced government subsidies in the current period; net investment income / income decreased 1.97PCT, mainly due to reduced investment income received from outbound investment and financial management; fair value change income / income growth 2.24PCT, mainly due to outbound investment and wealth management products losses last year; asset disposal income / income decreased 0.28PCT year-on-year; income tax / income increased 0.79PCT. (2) in the first three quarters, the gross profit margin / net profit margin of the company was 54.59%, 17.99%, 1.44%, 1.46, respectively; in the first three quarters, the rate of sales, management, R & D, and financial expenses was 26.50%, 4.43%, 3.24%, 0.44, 0.44, 0.11, respectively, respectively; the rate of sales, management, R & D, and financial expenses in the first three quarters was 26.50, 4.43, 3.24, 0.44, 0.44, 0.11, respectively, and 0.46, 0.32, 0.44 and 0.11PCT, respectively. Investment income / income decreased 2.52 PCT compared with the same period last year; fair value change income / income increased 2.73 PCT; income tax / income increased 0.6PCT compared with the same period last year.
Inventory improved and accounts receivable increased. At the end of 23Q3, the inventory of the company was 789 million yuan, down 10.94% from the same period last year, up 7.2% from the previous year, and the inventory turnover days was 239 days, down 8 days from the same period last year. Accounts receivable totaled 204 million yuan, an increase of 28.3% over the same period last year. The turnover days of accounts receivable was 32 days, an increase of 8 days over the same period last year. Accounts payable was 184 million yuan, down 17.86% from the same period last year, and the turnover days of accounts payable was 65 days, down 12 days from the same period last year.
Investment suggestion
We analyze that: (1) the company has the influence of one-time fee and fair value loss in 2021 and 2022, and the profit end of 23 years is more flexible, which has been reflected in 23Q3 deduction of non-net profit. (2) We estimate that the franchise store of the company still has a lot of room for expansion this year, and there is a demand for high-end brands among the third and fourth-line franchisees. (3) under the background of the bottleneck of investment, the company's e-commerce is expected to rely on the improvement of product strength and human efficiency control more robust. Maintain the 23-25 revenue forecast of 31.85, 3527 and 3.883 million, and the estimated return net profit for 23-25 is 5.89, 661, and 733 million, corresponding to 0.71, 0.80 and 0.88 of EPS, respectively. The closing price on October 26, 2023 is 8.34, corresponding to the PE of 23-24-25, respectively. It is optimistic that the company will continue to increase its market share and maintain its "buy" rating.
Risk hint
Epidemic uncertainty risk; raw material price fluctuation risk; business performance fluctuation; systemic risk.