Events:
According to the company's quarterly report of 2023, in the first three quarters of 2023, the company realized income of 8.575 billion yuan (yoy+7.91%), net profit of 1.759 billion yuan (yoy+24.35%), net profit of 1.64 billion yuan (yoy+15.84%), of which 2023Q3 realized income of 1.784 billion yuan (yoy-25.02%) and net profit of about 153 million yuan (yoy-58.26%). The net profit of deducting non-return is about 99 million yuan (yoy-72.80%).
COVID-19 's related income has a high base, and the company's performance is under short-term pressure.
Affected by the increased demand for COVID-19 's medication in the second half of 2022, the company rapidly released its anti-cold products such as Lianhua Qingwen, realizing an income of 4.318 billion yuan; in the first half of 2023, COVID-19 's epidemic situation was controlled, terminal demand declined, and anti-cold business reached 3.088 billion yuan, with income showing a month-on-month downward trend. Continuous resuscitation after in-hospital diagnosis and treatment of 2023H1; restorative growth of cardio-cerebrovascular products; Qiliqiangxin combined with standardized treatment reduced the risk of major complex end-point events of chronic heart failure by 22% compared with the control group. A research paper published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (IF=120.7) found that Tongxinluo can reduce the risk of death from acute myocardial infarction by 30%. Qili Qiangxin capsule and Tongxinluo capsule are further upgraded based on evidence, and the market share is expected to continue to increase.
There are a wide variety of products under research, and the approval of new products is expected to contribute to incremental performance.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the company received a number of notices of approval for clinical trials issued by the State Drug Administration, including Huoxia Ganmao granule for gastrointestinal cold, Shenrong granule for Duyuan deficiency syndrome of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, and other chemical innovative drugs. At the same time, four innovative drugs of traditional Chinese medicine are conducting phase III clinical trials. 2023Q3 Qihuang Mingmu capsule for diabetic retinopathy has been approved, which is expected to contribute to incremental profits.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
Considering that COVID-19 's related high base income still needs to be continuously digested, we estimate that the company's revenue from 2023 to 2025 will be 105.65 and 12.932 billion yuan respectively (the original value is 109.15 and 138.06 billion yuan), with a year-on-year growth rate of-15.70% 22.40% and 19.01% respectively. The return net profit is RMB 2.80,394 million (the original value is 2.245, 2.2794), and the year-on-year growth rate is-16.16%, 20.93%, 17.11%, 1.19, 1.43, 1.68 per share, respectively, and the 3-year CAGR is 6%, and the corresponding PE is 19-16-13. In view of the fact that the policy is good for the innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, the company is the innovation leader of traditional Chinese medicine with high commercial transformation ability in China, and its innovative traditional Chinese medicine products are expected to continue to grow. With reference to the relative valuation of the comparable company, we give the company 20 times PE in 2024, with a target price of 28.66 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: profit decline risk, raw material supply risk, intensified competition in the industry, product promotion is not as expected, etc.