Main points of investment
High growth in income and improvement in asset structure. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's revenue was 3.344 billion yuan, an increase of 74.7% over the same period last year; the net profit of return to the mother was-220 million yuan, an increase of 73.1% over the same period last year; the non-net profit of return to the mother was-350 million yuan, an increase of 56.0% over the same period last year; the high growth was mainly due to the accelerated increase in the volume of diagnosis and treatment and the one-time confirmation of investment income in Shangluo Hospital, of which the profit and loss on the disposal of non-current assets was 120 million yuan. After excluding accounts received in advance, the asset-liability ratio decreased from 68.6% of 2023H1 to 62.3%, and the company's asset structure was further optimized. Throughout the year, with the continuous rise in the volume of diagnosis and treatment, the company's revenue is growing rapidly, and the annual performance is expected.
The loss in a single quarter is accelerated and narrowed, and it is expected to achieve monthly break-even during the year. In the single quarter of Q3, the company's revenue was 1.13 billion yuan, an increase of 34.1% over the same period last year, and a slight decrease of 1.5% compared with the previous year. We believe that it is mainly due to the relatively high base of Q2 this year. Q1 is affected by the New year and the epidemic, and Q2 diagnosis and treatment volume is rapidly climbing; Q3 income in a single quarter is affected by repeated respiratory diseases, and some critically ill patients are affected by factors such as hot treatment in summer. On the profit side, in the single quarter of Q3, the company's net profit was-64000 yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 100.0%; the non-net profit deducted from the mother was-100 million yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 54.7%, which was significantly smaller than the Q2 loss of 150 million yuan.
Profitability continues to improve, and the overall income structure continues to be optimized. Q3 single quarter, the company's gross profit margin and net profit margin were 10.9% and-1.0% respectively, 3.6 and 14.3 percentage points higher than Q2. We believe that the main factors affecting the company's Q3 quarter-on-quarter revenue are basically the same as the previous quarter and the significant increase in gross margin: 1. The overall volume of diagnosis and treatment accelerated. Benefiting from the company's medical brand and medical strength, its influence in the regional medical service market continues to improve, and the overall volume of diagnosis and treatment has accelerated this year. two。 High gross margin business volume, the overall income structure continues to optimize. With the continuous climbing of the diagnosis and treatment volume of the central hospital, the income of paediatrics, rehabilitation, traditional Chinese medicine, chronic neuropathy, mental psychology, medical plastic surgery and other high gross interest rate specialties in the North Hospital are expected to continue to grow rapidly, and the business structure is further optimized.
Investment suggestion: international medicine ploughing the medical industry for 20 years, based in Xi'an, radiating northwest. At present, the company is actively developing a comprehensive medical innovation business model of "serious medical care + consumer medical care". With the accelerated rise in the volume of diagnosis and treatment, the income structure continues to be optimized, and the overall performance is expected to maintain rapid growth. We estimate that the company's revenue from 2023 to 2025 will be 44.55,62.44 and 8.24 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit will be-4.26,1.53 and 426 million yuan respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: medical reform control fees exceed the expected risk, management and operation risk, the risk of shortage of medical resources.