面包增速改善，区域表现出现分化。1）分产品，单Q3 公司面包/月饼/其他类分别实现营收16.76/1.54/0.3 亿元，同比+0.25%/+10.4%/+180.1%，核心品类面包类收入增速由负转正；2）分地区，单Q3 华北/东北/华东/华中/西南/西北/华南地区分别实现收入4.14/8.71/5.56/0.57/1.87/1.10/1.63 亿元， 同比+2.5%/-0.7%/+3.6%/+9.2%/-1.7%/+4.1%/+14.8%，东北地区降幅收窄。What happened: the company released its third-quarter report in 2023.
The performance was in line with expectations and the revenue growth rate returned to positive. During the reporting period, the company realized revenue of 5.066 billion yuan (+ 0.77%), net profit of 459 million yuan (- 6.24%) and non-net profit of 443 million yuan (- 9.01%).
Among them, Q3 realized revenue of 1.86 billion yuan (+ 2.08%) and net profit of 168 million yuan (+ 26.81%).
The bread growth rate improved, and the regional performance was divided. 1) by product, the revenue of bread / moon cake / other categories of single Q3 company reached 1.676 billion yuan respectively, compared with the same period last year, which was + 0.25%, 10.4%, 180.1%, respectively. The income growth rate of the core category of bread changed from negative to positive. 2) by region, the single Q3 North / Northeast / East / Central / Southwest / Northwest / South China region realized income of 4.14% 8.71, 5.56, 0.57, 1.87, and 1.87 million, respectively. Compared with the same period last year, the decrease in Northeast China narrowed, with + 2.5%, 0.7%, 3.6%, 9.2%, 1.7%, 4.1%, 14.8%.
The overall expense rate remained stable and the profit pressure was partially released. 23Q3 achieved a gross profit margin of 23.0%, year-on-year + 1.26pcts, month-on-month-0.08pcts, mainly due to the low gross profit margin affected by the epidemic in the same period in previous years. In terms of expenses, Q3 sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates were 7.74%, 1.96%, 0.47%, 0.37%, respectively, year-on-year-0.37pcts/+0.17pcts/+0.04pcts/+0.26pcts, the overall expense rate remained stable. 23Q3 achieved a net profit margin of 9.01%, year-on-year + 1.76pcts, and the pressure on the profit side was partially released.
Demand is expected to pick up gradually, and production capacity will continue to be nationalized. With the elimination of the impact of the epidemic and the recovery of tourism travel, the demand for the company's products is expected to pick up gradually. Production capacity in South China, Southwest and other potential markets actively layout, the national chemical capacity expansion. At the same time, as the bread leader of medium and short insurance, the products focus on rigid demand and sufficient competition barriers. From a medium-and long-term point of view, compared with long-term insurance products, medium-and short-term bread has better taste and stronger health properties, and the upgrade trend of bread demand from long-term insurance to medium-and short-term insurance remains unchanged.
Profit forecast: taking into account the weak recovery in downstream demand, the rise in some raw materials and the continued construction of production capacity, we slightly adjust the company's 23-25 revenue to RMB 68.21 million, respectively, to RMB 75041,8548 million, and net profit to RMB 6.36pm, respectively. The net profit is RMB 742pm, corresponding to EPS of RMB0.40, 0.46 and RMB 0.54, respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating.
Risk tips: weak demand in the bread industry, sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, food safety issues, and so on.
