The company disclosed the third quarterly report of 2023: 23Q1-3 realized revenue of 1.417 billion yuan, year-on-year-12.38%, net profit of 106 million yuan, + 10.97%, deduction of non-return net profit of 93 million yuan, + 4.14%.
Among them, 23Q3 realized revenue of 408 million yuan, year-on-year-31.47%, net profit of 24 million yuan, + 2.42%, and non-return net profit of 19 million yuan,-14.69% of the same period last year. 23Q1-3 gross profit margin 24.56%, year-on-year + 5.51pct, net profit 7.70%, year-on-year + 1.56pct. Among them, 23Q3 gross profit margin 28.35%, year-on-year + 10.61pct, month-on-month + 5.70pct, net profit 6.45%, year-on-year + 2.35pct, month-on-month-2.00pct.
The increase in expenditure rate is mainly due to the increase in R & D expenditure:
During the first three quarters, the expense rate was 13.7%, year-on-year + 1.84pct, of which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate was 1.1% 7.4%, 5.9%, 0.7%, respectively. The factors leading to the increase in the expense rate during the period are, on the one hand, the decline in revenue, on the other hand, R & D expenditure + 20.7% year-on-year, and R & D expense rate + 1.62pct. Short-term loans at the end of 23Q3 are basically the same as at the beginning of the year, with no long-term loans.
The operating cash flow is good, changing from negative to positive in the same period of a single quarter:
The net operating cash flow of 23Q3 was 101 million yuan, compared with-21.24 million yuan in the same period last year, changing from negative to positive. 20Q3 and 21Q3 were 41.07 million yuan and 68.95 million yuan respectively. The cash-to-income ratio of 1.46 23Q3 22Q3-23Q2 in a single quarter was 0.91,0.72,1.33 and 0.84 respectively.
Continue to plan and narrow the range:
23Q1-3 provides for asset and credit impairment losses of 30.47 million yuan, accounting for 2.2% of the total revenue, of which 23Q3 and 23Q2 provide impairment losses of 12.49 million yuan and 16.05 million yuan.
Investment suggestion: we are optimistic about the expanding layout of the ① grain and oil industry chain, leading the trend of granary modernization, the new ② infrastructure drives the cold chain demand, and there is a large space for domestic cold chain operation. We estimate that the company's 2023-2025 return net profit will be 1.81,2.36 and 347 million yuan respectively, and the current price will be 35,27,18 times PE respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk hints: the risk of seasonal fluctuations in income; the macroeconomic situation is lower than expected; the development of new business is not as expected.