我们认为公司毛利率同比下降主要系上游原材料铜涨价所致，23Q3 电解铜均价较去年同期增长约13%。费用率来看，23Q3 公司期间费用率为6.23%，同比+0.49pct，环比+1.02pct，其中销售、管理、研发、财务费用率分别为0.62%、2.03%、2.45%、1.13%，同比分别-0.06pct、+0.46pct、-0.30pct、+0.39pct，环比分别-0.13pct、+0.29pct、+0.07pct、+0.79pct。Event: the company released three quarterly reports in 2023, the company's 2023Q1-Q3 realized revenue of 2.494 billion yuan, + 21.0% compared with the same period last year, and realized net profit of 127 million yuan, + 25.2% compared with the same period last year. Among them, 23Q3 achieved revenue of 927 million yuan, + 8.7% year-on-year, + 12.0% month-on-month; net profit of 45 million yuan,-11.3% compared with the same period last year.
Comments:
23Q3 revenue increased month-on-month, and the rise in raw material prices led to a decline in gross profit margin compared with the same period last year. 23Q3 achieved revenue of 927 million yuan, + 8.7% year-on-year, + 12.0% month-on-month; net profit of 45 million yuan,-11.3%, unchanged from the previous year. The company's 23Q3 gross profit margin is 12.92%, year-on-year-1.65pct, month-on-month + 0.46pct; net profit rate is 4.87%, year-on-year-1.10pct, month-on-0.55pct.
We believe that the year-on-year decline in the company's gross profit margin is mainly due to the increase in the price of upstream raw material copper, and the average price of copper electrolysis in 23Q3 has increased by about 13% over the same period last year. In terms of expense rate, the expense rate of 23Q3 during the period is 6.23%, year-on-year + 0.49pct, month-on-month + 1.02pct, in which the rates of sales, management, R & D and financial expenses are 0.62%, 2.03%, 2.45% and 1.13% respectively, year-on-year-0.06pct, + 0.46pct,-0.30pct, + 0.39pct, respectively-0.13pct, + 0.29pct, + 0.07pct, + 0.79pct.
Raise investment and expand production, promote production capacity and increase the radiation area of nearby customers at the same time. The company announced on October 24, 2023 that it intends to issue convertible bonds to raise investment and expand production. The funds raised are mainly used for the expansion projects of Hubei production base, Ninghai production base and automobile cable insulation materials. After the expansion of the company's automobile cable insulation material project, the production capacity is expected to reach 29700 tons. The company's total automobile cable production capacity will be 8.1742 million km in 2022. After the Hubei and Ninghai expansion projects reach production, it is expected to increase the cable production capacity by 4.6481 million km and expand production by about 57%. At the same time, Hubei factory is a new factory for the company, which is expected to open up customers in central China and increase the company's market share after reaching production.
Profit forecast and investment rating: as the leader of domestic cable, the company benefits from intelligent electric growth in the industry, and its revenue increases steadily, but considering that the company's 23Q3 is temporarily under pressure from the rising price of raw materials, we downgrade our profit forecast. We predict that the company's net profit from 2023 to 2025 will be 190 million yuan, 270 million yuan and 380 million yuan, an increase of 35%, 43% and 41% over the same period last year, and the corresponding PE is 23-16-12 times. Maintain the company's "buy" rating.
Risk factors: the sales of new energy vehicles are not as expected; the promotion of special cables is not as expected; the risk of rising prices of upstream raw materials.
