Core viewpoints
The company disclosed its report for the third quarter of 2023 that its revenue in the first three quarters was 2.096 billion yuan, an increase of 14.81% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 20.9907 million yuan, down 73.02% from the same period last year. The company's 23Q3 realized revenue of 720 million yuan, an increase of 2.47% over the same period last year, an increase of 4.65% over the previous year, and a net profit of 7.2607 million yuan, down 79.31% from the same period last year and an increase of 36.99% over the previous year. The company's revenue products are as follows: ① 23Q3 conditioning products income 309 million yuan (year-on-year-8%, month-on-month ratio + 2%); ② 23Q3 fresh income 290 million yuan (year-on-year + 82%, month-on-month ratio + 25%); ③ 23Q3 hairy chicken income 116 million yuan (year-on-year-42%, month-on-month ratio-22%). Looking to the future, with the boost of the peak consumption season at the end of the year, the price of hairy chicken is expected to rise, the price of the company's products is expected to rise synchronously, the superimposed cost is improved, and the company's performance is expected to further improve.
Event
The company disclosed its report for the third quarter of 2023 that its revenue in the first three quarters was 2.096 billion yuan, an increase of 14.81% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 20.9907 million yuan, down 73.02% from the same period last year. The company's 23Q3 realized revenue of 720 million yuan, an increase of 2.47% over the same period last year, an increase of 4.65% over the previous year, and a net profit of 7.2607 million yuan, down 79.31% from the same period last year and an increase of 36.99% over the previous year.
Brief comment
1. Revenue keeps growing, and low chicken prices lead to a decline in performance.
The company's 23Q3 sales gross margin is 6.87% (year-on-year-3.96pcts, month-on-month + 0.43pcts), and net sales margin is 1.01% (year-on-year-3.99pcts, month-on-month + 0.24pcts). In terms of cost:
The company's 23Q3 sales / management / R & D / financial expenses are 1.41 million yuan for 1,937 and 1.22 million respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 0%, 17%, 57% and 133%, respectively, and month-on-month changes of-3%, 30% and 18%, respectively.
2. The revenue of conditioning products and fresh industry increased month-on-month, and the income of hairy chickens decreased due to the downturn of breeding.
The company's revenue products are as follows: ① 23Q3 conditioning products income 309 million yuan (year-on-year-8%, month-on-month ratio + 2%); ② 23Q3 fresh income 290 million yuan (year-on-year + 82%, month-on-month ratio + 25%); ③ 23Q3 hairy chicken income 116 million yuan (year-on-year-42%, month-on-month ratio-22%). Looking to the future, with the boost of the peak consumption season at the end of the year, the price of hairy chicken is expected to rise, the price of the company's products is expected to rise synchronously, the superimposed cost is improved, and the company's performance is expected to further improve.
Revenue channel: ① 23Q3 wholesale and retail income 213 million yuan (year-on-year-13%, month-on-month + 29%); ② 23Q3 overseas export income 151 million yuan (year-on-year-2%, month-on-month + 8%); ③ 23Q3 catering customer income 111 million yuan (year-on-year + 55%, month-on-month + 3%); ④ 23Q3 food processing income 184 million yuan (year-on-year-3%, month-on-month-16%) ⑤ 23Q3 e-commerce revenue is 25 million yuan (year-on-year + 28%, month-on-month-9%); ⑥ 23Q3 merchant revenue is 33 million yuan (year-on-year + 51%, month-on-month + 28%).
3. Profit forecast and rating: the company's revenue from 2023 to 2025 is estimated to be 3.352.3816 billion yuan, the net profit of its parent is 0.41, 0.71, and the EPS is 0.20, 0.35 and 0.51, respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk analysis.
1, the risk of epidemic situation: the main production and management links of the company include commissioned commercial broilers, and diseases such as Newcastle disease and H7N9 may appear in the breeding process. Entrusted farming is a common mode in the industry where the company is located. Although there has been no epidemic outbreak in the process of entrusted breeding since the establishment of the company, the company still faces the risk of infection of live poultry raised by entrusted farmers. To a certain extent, the epidemic disease will lead to insufficient supply of raw materials for the company's main products, affecting the normal production of the company; the spread of the epidemic will affect consumer psychology, reduce the market demand for chicken products, and affect the company's business performance. In addition, the main control measures during the epidemic include vaccination, isolation and even compulsory culling, all of which will increase the company's expenditure or cost to varying degrees.
2. Business risk, tax policy risk, natural disaster risk and so on.