预计23-25 年归母净利为4.63/6.01/8.03 亿元。分部估值法，预计24E 金仓数据库业务（持股51.29%）收入4.92 亿元，可比公司平均24E 12.6xPS(Wind)，给予24E 12.6x PS，对应市值32 亿；其他业务24E 净利5.26亿元，可比公司平均24E 42.4x PE(Wind)，给予24E 42.4x PE，对应市值223 亿，总市值255 亿，对应目标价40.90 元（前值为51.95 元），维持“买入”评级。Non-net profit deducted in the first three quarters increased by 33% compared with the same period last year, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Taiji shares released three quarterly reports, 2023 Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 5.221 billion yuan (yoy-26.06%), return to the mother net profit of 132 million yuan (yoy+12.38%), deducting non-net profit of 121 million yuan (yoy+32.80%).
Q3 realized revenue of 2.02 billion yuan (yoy-5.56%) and net profit of 81.24 million yuan (yoy+0.77%).
It is estimated that the net profit of returning to the mother in 23-25 years will be RMB 601 million RMB. According to the segment valuation method, it is estimated that the income of the 24e gold warehouse database business (51.29%) is 492 million yuan, which is comparable to the company's average 24e 12.6xPS (Wind), giving 24e 12.6xPS, corresponding to a market capitalization of 3.2 billion. Other business 24e net profit 526 million yuan, comparable to the average company 24e 42.4x PE (Wind), given 24e 42.4x PE, corresponding to the market value of 22.3 billion, the total market value of 25.5 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of 40.90 yuan (the previous value is 51.95 yuan), maintaining the "buy" rating.
23Q3 R & D expenses increase significantly, profitability increases steadily
The company's overall gross profit margin in the first three quarters was 29.26%, an increase of 8.81pct over the same period last year, and the sales / management / R & D rates were 3.75% 18.05% 2.66% respectively. From a quarterly point of view, the gross profit margin of Q1-Q3 is 26.81%, 28.80%, 29.26%, respectively, which continues to maintain a good growth trend. Q3 sales / management / R & D rates are 3.31%, 15.29%, 3.17%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 0.53/+1.09/+1.67pct, due to pressure on the revenue side. The research and development cost of 23Q3 was 64 million yuan, an increase of 99.72% over the same period last year. We believe that the company will continue to increase investment in R & D and accelerate the pace of product business such as government cloud, data services and gold warehouse database, and the revenue side is expected to recover gradually.
Xinchuang & data elements are parallel and the industry is deepened and accelerated.
In terms of Xinchuang, the company continues to expand the coverage of industry segments around Xinchuang's core products: 1) the cumulative installation and deployment of more than 1 million sets of Jinkang database, covering more than 50 important industries. 2) Huianxin created nearly 10 large enterprises newly signed by OA. 3) Fazhiyi launched the "multi-stream in one" contract implementation management and control model, and signed contracts for mining, water conservancy and other industries. In terms of data elements, in October, the Taiji power industry data spatial database products landed on the power public information platform of China Power Union, which collected 1200 + electronic document reports and 400 million pieces of structured data. We believe that the acceleration of corporate innovation and data elements in the industry, combined with the steady implementation of relevant national policies, is expected to further consolidate the leading position.
The release of the AI model helps the party to transform and upgrade the intelligence of the government and enterprises.
Taiji shares participate in the research and development of AI model "Xiaoke" to provide customized AI solutions for party, government, enterprise and industry users. As of September, Taiji AI products have been successfully empowered: 1) contract management: judge customer risk level and formulate management strategy based on AI. 2) Intelligent manufacturing: AI technology promotes the innovation and transformation of equipment management. 3) Wisdom Politics and Law: AI technology provides a set of universal intelligent document processing tools.
We believe that the company's AI technology has the characteristics of full innovation, specialization, privatization and high credibility, which can effectively adapt to the application of the party, government and enterprises, help the intelligent transformation and upgrading of the industry, and open up a new growth curve.
Risk hint: the promotion of Xinchuang is not as expected, and the construction of digital China is not as expected.